My Trading Game Plan | September 25, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I [music] mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hypes and narratives every time.
Now I teach investors the same
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. [music]
This is my trading game plan.
>> Good morning and welcome to my trading
game plan. My name is Drew Dosick. I am
stepping in for Gareth Soloway who is
out of the office today. Guys, now the
markets, a lot of news this morning that
we're rolling into today. We have the
10-year yields coming down. That's back
on the news that we're potentially
having a phased reopen of the Strait of
Hormuz. That's at least the proposal
offered by Iran. The issue here is that
the proposal they offered is the same
under the memorandum of understandings
in which that agreement in June was
already ripped up and the United States
said they won't go back to the table
with those same terms. So, we're going
to see how this rolls out. With the
midterms approaching, this
administration wants to do whatever they
can to help taper both the 10-year yield
as well as US oil as both when those
rise put pressure on the markets and
makes it harder for them to win the
midterms. So, we're pressing against a
serious time in the markets. Something
that this week has literally been driven
by the 10-year yield. So, we're going to
take a deep dive into that this morning.
Let's jump into the charts. Got a lot to
go through before the markets open.
First up, guys, look at the S&P 500
pushing up pretty nicely after yesterday
failing to hold this declining trend
line. The breakout scenario that took
place on Monday, we never got a
follow-up extension and thus we came
right back down underneath that trend
line. But, you see premarket today
looking like we're about to gap up and
remain above this as long as the 10-year
yield and US oil do not spike. I see the
spiders could have a very good shot of
staying above this trend line near term
for the bulls. That would be good. You
want to see a close above 768 and 54
cents. Next up into the Qs. We see the
Qs in the premarket are also pushing up.
Now, on the QQQ, this is a Nasdaq 100.
We did butt up against all-time highs.
On the regular Nasdaq, we did make
all-time highs. So, near term on the
Q's, this level is still resistance, 748
and 65 cents. Much like the S&P 500, if
the Q's were to get up and touch this
line, or even better, put a daily close
above that line, that would be near term
very bullish for tech and Nasdaq. Into
the SMH, guys. SMH, as we see, did pull
back slightly yesterday. And if you
recall from watching Trading the Close,
I've been illustrating this daily, guys.
Really monitoring what's going on with
the SMH, cuz I see the SMH as being the
leading indicator for risk on sentiment
in the markets. And what we've analyzed
and discussed, this declining trend line
that you see on the chart is from the
all-time highs. We most recently have
broken out and extended away from that
trend line a great breakout. In doing
so, we broke out of this longer-term
inclining parallel channel. This
parallel channel
contained price since the liberation day
lows back in April of 2025. So, getting
out and back above that, again, near
term bullish. Double breakout on our
hands. Price just has simply gotten
jammed up right here at the 618 fib
retrace from this decline, which is at
607 and 58 cents. Getting through that
would be very bullish near term. So, I
see any close daily above 607.58,
that does increase probabilities for SMH
to go up and attack the next key
resistance level at 635.84.
So, be watching the daily close today.
If we close above that key level of
resistance, 607.58.
Now, next into the 10-year yield, as I
described earlier to intro the show,
man, this has been the story of the
week, and we can clearly see why. Right
here on Wednesday, yields ripped higher.
And then not only just ripping, but man,
we busted out of that consolidation that
was holding the 10-year back down. This
was the previous uh resistance level at
5.021%,
which is back in 2023. Now, look at what
prices that we're encroaching up here on
the 10-year yield, guys. The June of
2007 figure. And then we all know what
happened at that time. That was not good
news for the financials as well as the
housing market before we made a slippery
slide down further uh to the uh downside
on the 10-year yield. You can see when I
zoom back out on this weekly time frame,
there's that pivot that we just got
through. And uh or pardon me, there's
that pivot at the 2007. The previous uh
2003 pivot was right in this range right
here. That's incredible that the 10-year
yield is continuing to push up as fast
as it is, which is certainly putting
pressure on the markets. We know that
percent has done everything he can to
try to tame the 10-year yield and so far
has been unsuccessful. But you see why
I've zoomed out to the weekly time
frame, guys. I've got an inclining
parallel channel as well as another key
significant level of resistance all the
way up here at 6.249%.
That's something that's not out of a
fairy tale. We were back there, as you
can see, in 2000. That's something
that's very capable of happening. If I
go back to the weekly or monthly time
frame, you can cleanly see we were far,
far higher back in the '80s on the
10-year yield and we've taken nice
stairsteps declines on the way down on
the 10-year. And we're looking like
we're starting to make that same
stairstep approach on the way up with
beautiful consolidation and then surging
right now up on the 10-year yield. And
why this can present problems, guys, is
what's going on on this next chart. You
can see here I still remaining the
10-year yield on the left-hand side of
the screen, and the 2-year yield on the
right-hand side of the screen. Now, the
percent buybacks, guys, as I said, were
used to try to taper the advancement of
the 10-year yield, but what that does is
that also increases the shorter dated
yields to accelerate faster. So, near
term, as long as those two yields, the
2-year and the 10-year, do not get
inverted, meaning where the 2-year yield
gets above the 10-year, then we can
actually work this out. The issue is is
if the 2-year catches up to the 10-year,
what that does, guys, about 85% of the
time that signals and forecasts a
recession would be at hand. So, let's
look back at this chart. Currently,
you've got the 2-year at 4.89%
and the 10-year at 5.177%.
You can see here from this low on August
25th, the 10-year's increased 13%
compared to the 2-year that has
increased 18.2%
over that time frame. This illustrates
that extra 5% pump on the shorter dated
yield that we see here. So, guys, this
is really critical to watch in the near
term. Now, it doesn't mean as soon as
the 2-year gets over the 10 that we're
going to have a recession right away.
This is a foreshadowing highlighter that
does forecast a recession about 6 months
to 24 months in advance, but you still
got to keep this on your radar. That
gives you plenty of time to adjust,
maneuver the portfolio
for a potential pending recession at
hand. So, be monitoring both of these
charts very closely moving forward. Uh
next up, we've got gold pushing up
slightly today. Near-term resistance
will be here at the bottom of this
parallel channel. And for any new
viewers that haven't seen this, been
following gold in this parallel channel
ever since the April of 2025 lows,
highlighting how we did breach the
bottom recently, and gold is doing its
best to try to maintain within that
parallel channel. So, bulls on gold want
to see price get up here to that
parallel as fast as possible, $4,347.
Silver also having a nice day so far
today pushing up getting above
yesterday's close up today 1.28% near
term. And what would be positive for
silver is to close back above this
inclining trend line. This trend line
was a trend line that I was a designated
for a head and shoulders pattern that
has simply failed and you can see price
action is really getting hung up right
here on this trend line. So near term,
any price action and close above is near
term bullish. That level basically is
right where we're at today at current
price. We need to get above and stay
above with a close of $64.62.
Next up into Bitcoin not doing too much
so far today, but to give you the macro
analysis, bulls want to see whatever
they can have happen for Bitcoin to get
above this neckline of the previous head
and shoulders pattern. Getting above
that will turn a lot of technical
traders including myself bullish will
likely also mean more buyers to
illustrate and pardon me, to push
Bitcoin up further on the charts up near
this 50% area of the parallel which
would be the next resistance at 104,000.
That key level on this trend line guys
this week is 88,948.
Next up, US oil as we discussed at the
beginning coming in ever so slightly
allowing the markets to push up. This is
again on the back of the potential phase
reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. So
nice pullback here on oil. Notice though
the most recently on the daily chart of
oil, we've really been following this
inclining parallel channel on the march
up and we've yesterday really just
kissed resistance here at the 50% area
of the parallel and right when price
action started selling off guys, that's
when that news broke of the phase
reopening. So we were marching up on US
oil yesterday. We were due to hit
resistance had price tagged this 50%
area the parallel news broke just
slightly before price did that and has
since come straight back in. Nice
reduction there on oil, but I want to
pull out this larger picture to you to
illustrate and take away this parallel
channel. Guys, this is an inverse head
and shoulders pattern with this
declining trend line being the neckline
and the targeted measured move this
other trend line at the top of the
screen up here above $116.
So, we'll see if US oil will start
pushing up again in the near future and
likely what would cause that is a
crumbling of this potential new phased
reopening in the Strait of Hormuz.
Uh next up nat gas the last couple days
has been a rocket ship guys and if
you've been following trading the close
we've pegged this step by step every one
of these pegs and moves higher on this
chart. Do yourself a favor guys, come
around watch all of our shows. We've
got, you know, trading the close, my
trading game plan, plus we've got Nick
Valdez
with Bitcoin Revealed. Awesome, great
information all free for you to take
advantage and take your next profitable
trade. All right guys, back into this
chart of nat gas. Look at the great
breakout at hand that we have here for
nat gas. Now, near term a little bit
overbought. You could see we reached the
70 point threshold on the RSI just
yesterday. Makes sense we should have
price action on nat gas come back in
ever so slightly. The main thing it's
still holding this breakout. That's a
key level taken from a pivot back in
March of this year and then connected
over to the other pivot tops and price
is respecting that at least for today.
Now, nat gas I do see can go higher. The
bottom of this parallel would be that
next destination $3.56.
I'll back out to the weekly time frame
to show you how nat gas has really just
meandered in a bearish consolidation
pattern under this parallel channel and
price is doing whatever it can to try to
get back and tag that parallel and
eventually break into that parallel
again. So, any sort of pullbacks I see
in that gas right now are buying
opportunities for price to go higher.
All right, speaking of next charts,
guys, ZS. You can see Zscaler has had a
fantastic push higher, but today is
slipping ever so slightly because they
did have a surprise switch with their
CRO. Now, their CROs help them advance
and release products. It's a contract
research organization. It basically
helps them speed up and also ensure
their products come out with the best
efficiency and and productivity as well.
So, this is a is a small minor drop in
the stock, one of which I think will
return momentum and come up and attack
this inclining trend line. If you notice
here on the chart, guys, price broke ZS
Scaler's inclining parallel defined by
these two inclining trend lines. It did
so back in January of this year. Now,
this has taken quite a while, but price
action whenever it breaks a major key
long-term trend line, price action likes
to come back up and retest that same
trend line that it had broken from. This
one just so happened to take nearly 9
months, and we are on the path right
there for it. One of which I still
believe ZS will push up higher once they
square their CRO situation up. The
resistance for a Zscaler is going to be
up here at $226.79.
Also notice, if I take the fib
retracement tool and simply
put price action here at the top, pull
it down to the bottom, notice how that
50% retrace comes in contact with that
inclining trend line. Should be a strong
resistance zone should ZS return to the
upside and tag this region. Should see
profit takers
for a nice little pullback. Next up,
guys, watching FSLY. I know just the
other day we were on the verge of a
breakout on Wednesday. You can see I've
got illustrated on your chart. We've got
an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
This is a large inverse head and
shoulders pattern, one capable, if it
does put in a daily close above this
$29.83
neckline, does have the potential to
push price all the way up here to
$46.33.
Look back on the weekly timeframe, FSLY
should accomplish this near-term
breakout. Look at all this room above
the FSLY FSLY has to run. So, this is a
big uh significant potential breakout on
the horizon. Keep this on your radar,
set some reminders, wait for a breakout,
retrace, and our signature bounce play
on Trading the Close, guys. Very
interesting stuff. Speaking of
interesting stuff, MGM, guys, look at
this chart here on MGM. Big huge decline
the other day when People Inc. backed
out of buying MGM Grand. And so, we had
a big drop, as you see here, dropping
price underneath a very key inclining
trendline from the April 2025 lows. So,
uh what What's interesting about MGM
today, they flipped the script, and
People backed out of their offer to buy
MGM, but MGM turned around and said,
"You know what? We'll buy you, People."
And so, now People is pushing up this
morning, MGM pushing up ever so
slightly, too. Once the dust settles
with this merger acquisition flip, I
anticipate MGM to come right back up
here to $35.55.
Those are the low pivot ranges here, and
as I highlighted, the uh inclining
resistance level for this trendline.
Next up, on into Tesla. Tesla pushing up
like much of the market this morning,
but look at this drift higher that we've
had here on Tesla. It's been a great
push, but it's someone somewhat losing
some steam, and you can see that because
we're not putting in any sort of proper
move up, consolidation, move up,
consolidation methods. What I see here,
like on these other charts that have had
significant breakdowns from trendlines,
this one highlighting also it's a common
date guys back to that April 2025 low
connecting pivot to pivot. So that
clearly illustrates we've got an X marks
the spot right here for Tesla right
around $400 where I likely see
resistance on Tesla in the near term.
Something that would likely take some
consolidation to break through on that
chart. Speaking of consolidation that
may be needed is on Meta. Look at this
run on Meta. Now I know I've covered
this on trading the close but guys this
has literally been the story of the
week. They've come out this week too
with brand new Meta VR glasses that only
weigh about 100 g so they're very small.
They they compared it to the weight of a
deck of cards. It's really truly
fascinating but will this be the one
time that their VR catches steam? I'm
not quite sure. A lot of this built up
momentum and push higher was on the back
of Meta's muse their AI agents that are
now assisting individuals do things from
making recipes to planning their next
vacations. So we see Meta barreling up
higher towards this triple top region
and if I back out on the chart you can
see Meta mostly has been contained in
this parallel channel since December of
2023. Now we're approaching upon not
only this triple top area right around
795 but we've got the 50% area of the
parallel right in that region too right
around 798 tells me around $800 Meta
will need some consolidation before
we're talking about a potential breakout
on our hands on the chart of Meta. Mind
you guys the daily RSI at 80.51.
Anything over 70 is considered
overbought in the near term. I wouldn't
want to be jumping on right here. In
fact I would rather want to see the
pullback and the consolidation take
place have this RSI balance out before I
consider pushing that buy button. All
right guys, thanks so much for tuning in
and joining me today. Don't forget to
like and subscribe to the video. Send
this out to your friends and family so
they too can learn technical analysis on
the charts. Guys, we'll have Jake
Sweeney filling in for Gareth Soloway
this afternoon on the weekly wrap-up.
Make sure you catch that at 4:20 in the
afternoon. Aside from that, have a
fantastic day and we'll see you next
week right here on the charts. Take
care, folks.