Strait of Hormuz News Triggers Intra Day Market Reversal

[music]
Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. And today guys, the market was a
little bit wild. I'll tell you what, we
definitely got whiplashed throughout the
middle of the day. You know why? because
news broke in the middle of the day that
a potentially the straight of Hormuz is
is working on phases of being reopened.
Then Ryan came out and denied that
information. But guys, you know what?
The markets reacted initially to that
news. We were heading down first thing
in the morning, putting in bearish
consolidation. That news broke, then all
of a sudden we ripped higher on the
charts, basically making somewhat of a
flat day across the board. It was muted
at the beginning of the day, but still
dragging lower because that ever uh
increasing 10-year yield was putting
pressure on the markets. We got a lot of
information to go over. So, let's jump
into some charts. Plus, we've got some
good trend line education to go over
today. First up, guys, with the S&P 500.
All right, the S&P 500 on the daily time
frame. As you see here, guys, what did
we hit with the very high end of price
action today? we hit this declining
trend line. This trend line that we've
been talking about literally ever since
these pivots have been made after making
the new all-time high on the S&P 500. To
recap, we broke above. We didn't get a
proper extension following this. That
allowed price action yesterday to
decline, run through that trend line,
and it did pause there ever so slightly
for about 50 minutes before it ended up
closing underneath. Now, today, look at
the 10-minute price action. We opened up
lower, made an attempt to get close to
gap fill, failed, went down, put in
bearish consolidation, then all of a
sudden that news broke and look at that
rocket rally that we had on this single
10-minute candle at 12:10 in the
afternoon and then we continued to push
up higher. But you know where we ended
up hitting the brakes? Right there on
that trend line. This is remarkable,
guys. When you draw these trend lines
correctly, you can have price influenced
by these trend lines in multiple days
afterwards. Even if price is going up
and below intraday, as you saw right
there on the chart, that's where price
put the brakes on. Now, that initial
10-minute candle surge, actually stopped
at that gap fill, consolidated for a few
minutes, then the buyers just continued
pushing up right there into that level.
So, that's where price ended on the day.
That tells us too tomorrow this level
will and still is resistance 768 and55
in the after hours we're actually coming
back in. So again with that news
breaking earlier in the middle of the
day that could end up panning out not to
be so uh rosy as it first was delivered.
We'll see how that turns out to be the
case. But as I've said we've already had
a lot of these uh false starts with
potential peace deals over in the Middle
East. Certainly, anything that comes
there that's positive will help the
markets push back up because as you see
here, we weren't that far off the highs.
Matter of fact, NASDAQ on the IXIC, we
were making brand new all-time highs
this week on Tuesday and then since put
in a simple technical retrace. Where did
we retrace, guys? Right here to the
point in which price broke out. Now,
tomorrow we should actually be pushing
up. This is a technical breakout,
retrace, bounce play in action. So,
we'll see how much legs the IXIC can
push up tomorrow, but so far near-term
certainly tags support today here at
26,700
points. Next up into the SMH, guys. SMH
really didn't have that bad of a day
either. It wasn't looking that good
earlier on, much like the S&P 500 when
we did gap lower and then we were
putting in this bearish consolidation.
Then that news broke, really flipped the
script on the whole uh momentum and
overlook uh throughout the day. as you
can see finishing back getting close to
gap fill where the finish is. We are
pulling down ever so slightly after
hours. Now, resistance, as you see here,
right of of up above, that's the 618 fib
retrace from the all-time highs down to
this most recent low. That 618 retrace,
as I said, right there at 60758.
That still near-term will likely be the
resistance even if we push up some more
tomorrow. We'll likely take four to at
least 7 days of consolidation to before
we start pushing higher. But the thing
to take away in the estimation today,
yes, it did fall, but it didn't fall
enough to hit the top of this parallel
channel. Much like what we saw here on
the IXIC breakout, retrace, bounce play.
This has not yet fully retraced, at
least to the top of this parallel
channel for that bounce to ensue on the
SMH. Next up, the 10-year yield. Now,
guys, look at this chart, man. Goodness
gracious. The last two days on the
10-year yield, you would be thinking the
markets would be crashing, absolutely
collapsing, particularly any of the uh
capex spending or at least stocks that
are heavily in debt. We should be going
down on the charts with a big push like
this. But guys, we're staying buoyant.
It's showing that the investors are
still clamoring over there to tech as
the two last charts that we just
displayed. Now, getting into the hourly
time frame, you could see here that
right about 10:00 today, pushed up. At
noon, we actually did start coming down.
That helped the markets push up. But
then we immediately afterwards, the next
hour, just started continuing marching
right back up on the charts. also
implying too the Fed watch tool guys is
sitting at probabilities now with two
hikes by the end of the year before I
came into the show today 68% chance of a
hike on the very next meeting in October
and then the one in December is now
sitting in the mid50s so it's a little
bit better than a coin flip but still
favoring two hikes going into the end of
the year and it looks like the markets
are pricing them in right here on the
10-year yield so I flip back to the
10-year yield and I'm going to go a
little bit further back in time back to
the weekly time frame. So you can see
this next resistance level is 5.289%.
And guys that last took place you can
see the year what happened in that year
guys. Well it's something that was not
good for the housing market. It was not
good for the financial sectors as we had
our major financial crisis and the
housing market crisis. And then that did
lead to lower yields afterwards trying
to get people to get back into the homes
that they couldn't afford anymore. Uh
but you see we're returning back to this
critical level, one that took place uh
last before we had a significant change
in the market environment. So that is
looming overhead. And the way that we've
been going the last two days on the
daily time frame, it it doesn't it's not
out of question that we could
potentially be up there at 5.289%
tomorrow. Even though we are well
overbought on the daily RSI, 75.69 69 on
the weekly. 78.17.
Look at all of those green weekly
candles just pushing up on the chart.
Incredible chart there on the 10-year
yield. Now, that higher yields did not
help the case for gold to continue to
push up today. Yesterday failed, holding
on to the inclining parallel channel.
Today, dropping a little bit further if
we continue down tomorrow. Next support
here on this inclining trend line,
$4,227.
Next up into silver also seeing a
decline today. Now yesterday I would
count that as closing right on that
line. So today first day dropping
beneath as this is all in essence been
xed out as far as the time basis and
counting these candles for breaking. So
tomorrow if we do push down a little bit
lower this trend line is going to be the
upper resistance and and if we put in a
close lower excuse me then that trend
line will be the resistance $64.75.
But so far, not necessarily the best of
days there for silver. Near-term support
down here at $61.3.
Next up into Bitcoin. Bitcoin somewhat
took the day off today, guys. But just
to remind you, the near-term resistance
on Bitcoin is going to be up here at $89
and uh or $89,21.
The support is down here at $80,594.
where I get both of these levels, this
inclining trend line is the neckline
from the previous head and shoulders
pattern that was on the chart. So, I've
been talking about this head and
shoulders pattern literally back here
since January, guys. And matter of fact,
if I flip to the yearly, which I did at
the end of the year last year, it was
pretty cool. Um, because covering the
year at the end of the year, who ever
looks at yearly candles, you know, I
look at monthly, but Bitcoin almost put
in a yearly topping tail candle. Yeah.
last year which would have been you know
unheard of honestly. However, in this
chart of Bitcoin if it gets above this
neckline guys now I know a lot of
momentum has been behind Bitcoin
recently but that officially gives it a
big big green light to start pushing
higher on the charts. Now, it may not
rocket up right when it passes that, but
it's going to put a lot of technical
investor traders like myself eyeing
Bitcoin for any sort of pullbacks for
continued momentum to the upside. That
neckline is really everything I've been
basing a lot of analysis on for the
entire year this year on Bitcoin. So,
getting above that in my eyes is a major
major accomplishment. Next week, that
value roughly right around 88,000 to
$89,000
on the chart. will be critical. We're
going to be tracking it every single
step of the way if we do continue to
push up. But Bitcoin, beautiful weekly
consolidation here now looking to take
the next leg up. Bulls do not want to
see price drop $80,500.
You want to see this next leg maintain
and continue to push up on the charts.
Uh next up, US oil flipping to the
hourly time frame here. One of our
members in the live day trading room
highlighted a 30 minute inverse head and
shoulders pattern on the chart today for
US oil. Now we were headed lower earlier
when we did get some good news obviously
um about the uh decline right but that
was right here after the inverse head
and shoulders pattern um had had already
triggered. You can see here this inverse
head and shoulders pattern had a
declining neckline starting here on
Tuesday and then crossing over this
pivot here on the right armpit at uh on
Wednesday and then finally broke out
telling us price was going to go right
here to the 50% area of that parallel
channel right at $97.50.
But that news broke as I said had a
steep drop in oil and since then has
somewhat put in a near-term bare flag on
the hourly time frame. But notice all
these wicks. I think a lot of these
wicks are investors like us that may be
doubting uh the potential legitimacy of
of the flow of oil in the straight of
 moves and are since buying oil
back up. So now I flipped to the daily
time frame and you can see we had a
pretty nice update with that neckline
defi defin defined right here by this
declining trend line and really clearly
seeing the level of resistance even
though we didn't hit it. It's right here
at this 50% area the parallel which also
is the highend range of the candle from
Monday September 21st. If you follow
that over to tomorrow, basically $9743
for the resistance level on US oil. Now,
Nat Gas, what a breakout today on NAC
gas, guys. Also something that we have
been calling in this show. We've been wa
watching Nat Gas and following it all
and has marched down this year and then
highlighting when everything switched
and started turning near-term bullish.
I've been angling this declining trend
line for a while, but guys, this chart
is the widowmaker for a reason. to the
upside and to the downside. It can blast
through certain levels. Clearly, we see
this is a very significant level on the
chart. Pivot high to several different
pivot attempts trying to break up and
through that trend line. And then today,
it just said, I'm blowing past this and
it did so with great velocity, pushing
up to highs, testing the high pivots
back here from June 1st of this year.
Now, the great thing for NAC gas, it's
broken out. Now the other thing to
secure this breakout, it's going to have
to push up tomorrow and close above
today's candle which could be a mighty
test. So be watching that gas in the
near term. It is overbought in the near
term. So we should be having a technical
pause consolidation period before we
attempt to make another leg up and and
attack the lower range of this parallel
channel which I do fully anticipate NAT
gas to do right here just under $3.60.
It's just a matter of how much
consolidation will be needed or is the
gas pedal going to be hit to the floor
again tomorrow and we just run up and
tag that level as soon as tomorrow. Uh
next up FSLR did not like the interest
rates going up today, guys. You can see
we had a bare flag developing on FSLR
over the last six or so trading days.
But here most importantly too, what do
we go through in this show guys? We go
through a lot of breakout retrace bounce
plays. The same thing's true when we
break to the downside. We have
breakdowns, retrace, and then fade down
on the chart on FSLR. That's exactly
what has occurred. You see, initially we
broke down from this inclining parallel
that had held price since the uh April
2025 lows. Broke down, retraced, and
then look at that fade, putting in a
bare flag, now fading some more. You
already see I've got cliff notes here on
the screen for where I anticipate the
next bounce to occur. And we'll just
simply go grab our Fibonacci sequence
retracement tools. Take this down to the
low on the low range of that parallel
channel. Then I'm going to take price
action up to the top. And you can see
that fib retracement level at $160.30.
Right on top of that is a gap fill as
well. If we continue coming down
tomorrow, I anticipate a near-term
bounce to take place right here on this
level. Now, before we go into the next
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So, let's jump into the last few charts.
We've got P, as you see here, Everpure
that did have an incredible breakout
today. Now, most recently on September
22nd, they were included with the S&P
500. So, we've had several different
ETFs as as well as other hedge funds
buying up Pushing up through the top end
of this parallel channel. One that I
show you that has held price back here
since May of 2023. We ran up to the uh
top of it here in November of 25. Came
back down, caught collective support
here on the 50% area, the parallel
before now ripping to go higher on the
charts. Now, curiously, price action
closed at this place where I connected a
pivot high trend line over to the next
collection of pivot highs when it broke
out of this parallel. And look how price
comfortably closed just right on top of
that level. But where do I want to draw
a trend line to find where price could
go to the highs here? Well, what I do,
guys, is I find other significant pivots
that have occurred on the chart, much
like I've already displayed right here,
this pivot high to this pivot high. And
you simply go through that exercise and
then bam, right there, guys. Now, I'll
admit I didn't take this trade in the
morning as I saw this ripping and with
this inclusion in the S&P 500, I said,
you know what, the markets are under
pressure. This is ripping. Let it go for
right now. There may be a reason it
could push through, but at the end of
the day, in hindsight, TA1, guys, as we
cleanly see, pivot to pivot rejection
right there. Beauty of technical
analysis on the charts. Next up, guys,
we've got HPE. Now, HPE went ahead and
made brand new all-time highs today with
this wick extension, making a high of
$6548.
But, as you see, it retreated back down,
closing amongst and under the previous
all-time high back here in June of 2026.
So, you can see though, we've been
collectively putting in nice
consolidation, all doing so on this
declining trend line connecting pivot to
pivot. Now, yesterday closed above.
Today, closed above that candle. So,
that tells me all this consolidation
plus those two closes as I just
described with the close above today's
high, that tells me HPE is getting ready
to start pushing higher on the charts.
Now, where could it go? Now, guys, this
can get into another scenario of uh
price discovery mode. As you see,
there's not too much beyond, but I would
do an exercise much like I described
before. go back to pivot tops, start
drawing trend lines to see where the
next key levels of resistance are going
to be. And we can already see where
price just kissed the resistance there.
And aside from that, guys, HPE may be
just taking off and and soaring to new
heights. One of which that we're going
to have to start drawing and creating
new patterns for on this liftoff. Great
move on HPE. Another stock looking to
push higher, guys, and attack those
all-time highs is Meta. Look at this
push on Meta after a fantastic breakout
retrace and bounce. This is an explosion
liftoff play. That's not a bounce. That
is a SpaceX rocket lifting up from
Florida. Incredible push that we see
there on the chart. Notice though, I'm
going to flip to the weekly time frame
so you can see this parallel channel
just a little bit cleaner. We've got
this highlighting and really coraling
most of price since December of 2023.
Price did deviate from the bottom side,
but has fought and broken back in and
exploded higher. Now, we find ourselves
coming very close to these all-time high
pivots. Alltime high here at 79625.
Well, guys, look over on the chart with
that parallel. Where does that take us?
That takes us to this 50% area of the
parallel. We don't need to have the RSI
to understand we're approaching
overbought situations here on Meta. But
then we combine a double top and a 50%
area resistance and an overbought
scenario. All three together tells me
Meta should be hitting the breaks at
very best. The most optimistic situation
putting in bullish consolidation just
shy of $800. I could even foresee us
piercing 800 and then coming back in and
chopping over the series of the next
several days. Much like, you know, AMD.
AMD pushed up, made new all-time highs,
and then look at that pullback that
occurred before now pushing up to brand
new highs yet again. Something very
similar could happen there on the chart
of Meta. All right, guys. Uh, that wraps
up today's show. Thank you so much for
tuning in and watching. Don't forget to
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really helps me out and your support and
comments have just really flattered me.
So, thank you so very much, guys. And as
another treat, I'm going to be able to
host tomorrow's game plan with Gareth
Soloway. is actually going to be out of
the office tomorrow. So, I'll be happy
to step in. Please come join me there
tomorrow as we get ready to kickstart
tomorrow's trading action. All right,
guys. Look forward to seeing you then.
Until then, you guys have a fantastic
day and we'll see you on the charts.
Take care, folks.