Trading The Close | September 28, 2026

[music]
Hello everybody. Welcome to trading the
close. My name is Drew Dosek and guys
back to the market we come. Hopefully
you guys had a fantastic weekend. Now,
the markets today were under a lot of
pressure initially because the 10-year
yields were shooting higher, guys. We
got over 5.25% today. You would
anticipate the markets to be under a lot
more stress than they were. Oil pulled
back ever so slightly, guys. We actually
had somewhat of a decent sideways day in
the markets, even though some stocks
were hit harders than others. But the
selling is not what we could anticipate.
That tells us the markets aren't really
too scared about the high yields, per
se. Right now, let's jump into some
charts. But first, before we do that,
guys, we've got more data hitting the
markets this week. We got jobs data as
well as inflation data that's going to
be coming later on the week. I'm going
to guide you step by step of the way
once we get there. Until then, guys,
first off, into the S&P 500 we go. And
we see we're down 74% today. The main
thing today is that we gave up this
declining trend line. You can see we
fought to get above it over the last
week or so of trading. Never really had
an extended confirming push away from
that declining trend line and since has
really jockeyed back and forth up and
down over that declining trend line.
Today you cleanly see we closed
underneath that. So tomorrow the feet to
beat to go higher is right here at 767
and 99. The area for support near-term
for us is at $760.36.
That's that trend line in that pivot
high that was an all-time high on the
S&P 500 back in June. So, this uh this
consolidation is actually near-term. As
I said, we should be coming down further
on the charts. This is somewhat positive
price action in the S&P 500. Given the
macro backdrop with the uh 10-year yield
as well as no conclusion uh is set there
in the Middle East, we're actually not
doing too bad on the S&P 500. into uh
the NASDAQ with the IXIC that we see
here also doing a pretty good job
maintaining its breakout status. Now,
we've got a lot of trend lines here on
the chart drawing and illustrating uh
where price could eventually go. But
most importantly, near-term look at this
all-time high pivot. And notice we all
yes, we already made brand new all-time
highs, but from that location, we have
since broken out of that trend line. And
we've done so with conviction with an
extended move that's allowed this area
to be support in the near term keeping
price above that trend line. The area
support for tomorrow is 26,691.
And as long as we keep price above here,
mainly for a bull, you want to see price
get away from that support trend line.
The more and more you hit any support
trend line, the more and more likely
price will go through it. The same is
true when we hit resistance trend lines.
The more and more we hit to the
resistance on the upper side, it weakens
those levels. So bulls want to see price
get away. So far the the NASDAQ is doing
a good job holding its current breakout.
Now if we continue to the upside have
any sort of reprieve on the 10-year
yield. You can see where price is likely
to go next. These inclining trend lines
are the destination. First one with the
highest uh spot on the chart is taken
back here from a December 2024th pivot
connected over to the major pivot that
occurred there in October of 2025. And
in that range, we get into basically a
resistance zone at 28,000 points. That's
a whole round psychological number, too.
Makes sense. Should we continue to push
up if the 10-year yield does come down,
uh the 28,000 mark will be that area of
resistance. Next up into the SMH. Now,
guys, reminder, I often like to gauge my
risk on sentiment with the SMH and how
well it's performing. Now, today, yeah,
we were down 1%, but guys, look at this
daily chart. We're doing pretty well,
even declining with these higher yields
on the chart. You see here, the SMH,
what is this, guys? This is bullish
consolidation. Matter of fact, if you
remember on these previous episodes of
trading the close, the SMH has gone
through a series of near-term breakouts
on the chart. First one on this
declining trend line that price broke
over. Second one, we broke out of this
inclining parallel channel. And lastly,
the moving averages, we got above this
50 moving average, the daily blue 50
moving average on the chart. In
addition, now the 20 is starting to get
in its proper spot above that 50. So,
this chart is actually looking
fantastic, guys. It's looking really
good like it can maintain the higher
yields. Matter of fact, this bullish
consolidation is confirming that too
with the low wick on today's price
action. So, the semis are doing quite
well, guys. Simply getting jammed up in
this technical area of resistance at
60758, which I'll remind you guys, you
guys can find these levels, too. Look at
this. I just take my fib retracement
tool, place them right here on the
chart. You can see where the stairstep
levels of resistance will be. Line them
up with previous areas on the chart to
make sense. And guys, this one certainly
makes sense. Look at these low pivots
back here from June. And then also right
here, the resistance, the 618 fib uh
retrace jamming price up over the last
week to week and a half. Beating that
will take us to 63554.
Interesting development that's going on
here on the SMH into the 10-year, guys.
This was really the news of the day. As
we said, we got over 5.25%.
In fact, we got 5.274%.
Now, you see the next level of
resistance, 5.289%.
That's in June of 2007, guys. Now, guys,
for real, understand and remember what
happened during that time. 2007 was
right before the financial crisis. Now,
let's go back to the monthly time frame
and you can see exactly where that pivot
came from. Right here on this pivot.
Now, we did bubble up above that level
or right into that level right before we
fell. Uh, but this is the first and next
resistance level on this chart of the
10-year yield that just continues to
surge. Now, this is also somewhat of a
psychological level, 5.25 once we get to
5% 5.25 as well as then 5.5, which guys,
that could be the next resistance, but
honestly, the top of the parallel would
be. But getting to 5.25,
maintaining this overbought status. Look
at this on the monthly 69.07.
On the weekly at 78.61 with the RSI and
back to the daily at 73.6. We are due
for some sort of consolidation on the
10-year yield. And when and if that can
occur and chop around amongst these
previous areas of resistance, the 5.021
up here to the 5.289. If we can start
chopping any sort of pullbacks will
allow the markets to push up higher and
help some of these stocks get into more
of breakout scenario. Much like how I
illustrated, the S&P is hanging in there
with these higher yields pressing on the
chart. Any sort of pullback is going to
allow that S&P to actually start pushing
up more from its consolidation and get
into the next key levels of resistance.
Now, the the interest rates and the
10-year yield going higher are not
actually doing well uh for the chart of
gold. Guys, look at this plummet on the
chart of gold. Down 3.87%
today. We were illustrating how the last
several days of trading the other week.
Gold was doing whatever it could to hold
within this inclining parallel channel
that you see on the chart, one that has
held price ever since April 2025 lows.
And man, guys, did we slip and fall from
that. You can see we had one candle
down, another one down, and we started
chopping sideways. could not muscle up
enough strength to get back inside that
parallel. Instead, to the downside, we
go with the near-term uh support right
here at 4,104.
Now, notice all this consolidation. This
is a lot of uh price action and days of
trading in which price likely should
stop with the selling in the near term.
Could potentially, if we do see these
yields pull back, could potentially see
gold wrapping up to tag this trend line
that had just broken from. And then we
could be in store for more downside on
gold to test these most recent lows
under $4,000 right there at $3,946
into silver which also was beaten up on
its chart down 5.56%.
It did hang out for a while today right
here at $61.3.
But this big move breaking this
consolidation putting in a daily close
now right on top of all of this
consolidation. That's the curious thing
about stocks guys. stocks like to do and
this in this case commodities and really
anything we chart in price likes to do
what it just did. Look at all this
consolidation break up higher
consolidation. Now it's just coming
right back down to the same level it had
been in. So really silver's not really
done much even though we've had a
near-term breakout. But since back here
in June 24th, we find ourselves
basically back in the same range. So
that gives us near-term support on
silver at 58.882. But guys, I see silver
with this big drop today and breaking
this consolidation coming down here to
$52 as the medium-term destination for
silver. So, I think we've got more
downside. We can get bounces and pauses
in the downside, much like I explained
back here on gold, how we could wrap
back up and tag that inclining trend
line, but I see further downside on
silver, which could present buying
opportunities once we get under $55 on
the chart. Next up into Bitcoin. Not too
much new to report today, guys. it is in
consolidating sideways off of this last
move up. Little bit of a near-term bare
flag of consolidation, but nothing new
to report because price action is
maintaining this next level uh that it
has moved up to. The main level I'm
watching to see if price gets a below is
this $80,524.
I know it would be better for Bitcoin to
maintain the top pivot, but in all
honesty, you notice how we pierce these
levels from the downside moving up. The
same thing can be true from the upside
moving towards the downside. we can
pierce that upper range uh wicks that
could lead us to catching the support
down here on that level. So $80,524
is where I'm defining near-term bullish
or bearish price action on the chart of
Bitcoin. But great move up in the most
recent price action establishing itself
now in the $83,000 range. Next up into
US oil. Not too much new to report
today. We moved up and then moved down
from the highs. So that's I guess the
good part. We're not pushing up too
much, but really just moving sideways
from the last three trading days. Still,
while US oil remains above this
declining trend line, this is, and I'll
remind you, this is uh the neckline of
an inverse head and shoulders pattern
that does have a targeted measured move
up here at $116. As long as price
remains above this neckline here, that
tells me price uh still has the
probabilities favoring a tag and push up
here to $116.19.
Right now though, just not too much new
to report on the day-to-day price action
with us chopping sideways in this range.
Uh, next up, Nat Gas. What an explosion
of a breakout. But notice what happened,
guys, on this chart of NAC gas. And this
is something I've been talking about
with you at length because this chart,
we've made a lot of good money on it
with boil. Now, we're starting to have
price come back in. I still think
there's more upside in NAC gas, which
could give a lot of uh other investors
like you all that may have not bought
some NAC gas an opportunity to jump on.
So let's look at this chart of NAC gas.
So we get back into NAG gas on the daily
time frame. This trend line taken from
this pivot high back in March 9th.
Notice we did not get a confirming move
above. We had one fantastic push higher.
But then the following day, we didn't
start trading up here in the 345 range.
Instead, we just traded amongst that
candle, leaving the door open for price
to come right back down underneath this
declining trend line. So right now,
still today, this is the line to beat,
guys. $323 on that chart. telling us any
sort of pullback specifically down here
to this area of support at $38. That
would be the green light buy area for
continued momentum to reattack what was
a potential breakout on the chart of NAC
gas. I still think Nack Gas is going to
push up here to $360.
Next up guys, I've got some interesting
stuff to go over with SpaceX. Now, some
of this is going to be uh uh theoretical
and hypothetical basically, but let's
see exactly what's happening. Now, we
cleanly see today with this big red
candle. We are now breaking near-term
trend. This is one candle. We've seen
this on other charts we've just gone
over where we've had one candle close in
one direction. The very next day, candle
closes back above the trend line. So, in
this scenario, just keep that in mind
with the grain. Take it with a grain of
salt. It's just one candle down. Now,
tomorrow SpaceX can save this trend by
trading amongst today's candle or
getting back above this inclining trend
line at $149.91.
If this trend continues downward closing
tomorrow underneath this candle, then
we've got a near-term broken trend with
these levels of support that I am
watching. Now, one thing that uh that
why I'm leaning on a potential break is
because of what's going on with their
share releases. And I'm not sure if you
guys have heard or or are aware, but
since the IPO of SpaceX, there's are
waves and basically trenches of preIPO
investor shares that are released
available to be sold on the markets.
They weren't all available right at the
initial IPO, nor were they available at
a certain set date for all of the shares
to be sold. Instead, they were released
and are still being released in
different tanches. So, let's take a look
at those transances. All right. So,
first off, you see this graphic that
we're going to pull up on the charts or
on the on the stage here. You can see
with this um uh SpaceX lockup calendar,
we just got through 328 million shares
being uh released onto the market to be
sold. With that most recent release,
that puts us now up to 2.58 billion
preIPO shares that are available to be
sold. And as you see here on October
9th, the 24th, we have roughly another
328 million shares being due to be
released at each of those dates. Then
come late October to early November,
another 1.3 billion. And then lastly,
December 8th for this year, that number
of 797 million can increase to 1.2 2
billion shares if SpaceX gets 30% the
$135 IPO. And if it does not, the
roughly $800 million shares will then be
released. And the reason I show you this
graphic is to illustrate that there
could be waves of additional selling
pressure hitting the stock chart of
SpaceX. And if that does occur, what
could happen on this chart is this
broken trend could bring price down
further, allowing buying opportunities
for anybody that did not yet pick up any
SpaceX. The ideal location for me is
down here, $125.19.
That happens to be the one of the high
pivot locations on this most recent pop
up on August 4th. And then you see price
retreated back down and then progressed
up higher. This would be the more
aggressive level as this gets into the
low range consolidation at $13148.
Now guys, follow with me for just a
couple seconds because if this does
happen with these waves of shares being
released to be sold and we do have
extended selling pressure in the near
term, if we do catch support once the
selling pressure subsides, watch what
could happen here on the chart of SpaceX
because we already have a very nice left
shoulder that has formed. Then we have a
nice head and we could be forming this
right shoulder. And if we do guys, look
at this connection. If we connect these
two levels from pivot to pivot, form a
right shoulder with the upcoming selling
pressure and then return back to this
neckline. Guys, this could be a major
move that could take SpaceX all the way
up here to $212.
I know we're at the very beginning of
forming the right shoulder. So, I'm
several steps ahead, but I see the
writing on the wall. I see there's
upcoming selling pressure hitting SpaceX
that likely should pull SpaceX at least
down into these support areas. We'll see
if we can do that with some velocity,
catch a bounce, and then we could be
back here in a few weeks to a month
talking about a potential inverse head
and shoulders breakout on SpaceX.
Similar scenario here with Tesla, guys.
Notice Tesla breaking the most n most
recent uptrend on the chart with this
inclining trend line. today's price
action closing comfortably beneath that
trend line. Now, the same thing applies
here tomorrow. This is just one candle.
We can have this uh tomorrow's price
action recover, get above that trend
line. That would be the most bullish
outcome possible for Tesla in the near
term. $36,942
is that level. Otherwise, near-term
support is where Tesla is headed down
here to $34211.
Now, mind you, this isn't as clean of an
inverse head and shoulders pattern
that's over on SpaceX, but you notice
we've got a left shoulder here, a
massive head that's forming here, and if
we do end up catching support at this
next level at 34211, then curling up, we
could be making a also another inverse
head and shoulders pattern on Tesla. The
difference here, Tesla's going to have a
lot of barriers to get through to
complete that inverse head and shoulders
pattern. And as you can see here, this
declining trend line at 385 and then
this inclining trend line roughly around
410 that is going to have to get
through. But there could be a lot of
gains on the charts of Tesla and SpaceX
if we do come down into these support
levels from what I see that is forming
here on the chart. Potential inverse
head and shoulder plays at hand. Next up
guys, MongoDB. Now we did have a big
drop here on MongoDB today down 18.46%.
They had a changing at their guards
right before investor day. Investor
shakeout was not that confident there as
it did plummet the stock all the way
down here sub $300 today. Actually just
right at 300 just straight down $100
down on MongoDB from changing their
lead. Now guys, look at this. What I
think is very curious, we've got an
inclining trend line back here from
April of this year connected to this
pivot from July of this year. Now, price
didn't close back above it, but
near-term, that's what the bulls on
MongoDB want to see ASAP. Get a close
above 33957 tomorrow and then we can go
back and attack this low pivot at 355.
Otherwise, we could be in a breakdown
scenario, breaking down from this
inclining trend line. But this near-term
news, I anticipate some of this badness
to evaporate and price, I'm anticipating
it to get back over this inclining trend
line sooner rather than later. Next up,
a chart. Two charts potentially in
breakout scenario. We've got Burlington
Code Factories as you see here. Huge
decline on the charts breaking this
inclining trend line. And all the while,
guys, not sure if you've seen this
pattern before, but what is this drawn
on your chart? That is a big letter M.
And right now, Burlington is making what
appears to be the A pattern in the MA
pattern and is due for an upcoming
rejection on the charts. Where, you
might ask? right here at the 50% area of
this parallel channel right around
$283.76
that also happens to be the low pivot
range creating the center part of the M.
And I'll back out to show you this uh
parallel channel established back here
in February of 2023. Great recovery thus
far on Burlington. Specifically today,
I'm anticipating more consolidation to
break through what appears to be a
near-term somewhat inverse head and
shoulders pattern, but I intend price
action to hit the breaks right around
the 283 level if it continues pushing
up. Uh, next chart up on the list, guys.
Put this on your watch list. PNG Proctor
and Gamble is officially on breakout
watch. Beautiful daily candle today, up
1.91%.
noticed this the other week on Thursday
as well as Wednesday and and Tuesday.
We're all attempting to break out from
this declining trend line jammed up
every time. We did have price action
above it, but eventually price came
right back down beneath. Now, we find
ourselves breaking out. So, tomorrow be
mindful of PNG to see if we put in a
close above today's high. If we do any
sort of pullbacks down here to this
trend line or then buying opportunities
for price to push up to 1536, that's the
near-term fib and also pivot resistance.
But the medium-term will be the top
range of this declining parallel channel
right around $157. But P put PNG on the
near-term breakout watch list. Lastly,
guys, we've got Nvidia. How can we not
go through today without covering Nvidia
specifically when they did say and
announce $150 billion stock buyback
program? It did send the stock up
initially. Still close the day up 1.68%.
But notice I've got this inclining trend
line that has literally been jamming
every rally uh up. So far that's that's
attempted on Nvidia. You can see here
price initially caught support on this
trend line. even even did so before it
broke down here on February or pardon me
September 11th as well as September um
um 10th and then price action broke down
and then it retraced rejected and then
simply we just retraced again. Now the
good thing for Nvidia is that it's still
maintaining up here regardless of
getting rejected. Generally this sort of
move up should see a fade down lower to
make a new lower low. But look at this
chart of Nvidia. You can see it
basically ever since this decline. What
did we do here? We made a decline. We
put in a higher low here and then all of
a sudden we made a new lower low. So,
uh-oh, that's not good. But immediately
after this lower low, Nvidia made a
higher low and then made another higher
low and then made another higher low.
All in doing so is moving up the chart.
So, the near-term trend on Nvidia is not
bad at all. It's making higher lows on
the chart, but we got stacked resistance
approaching first from this declining
trend line from the all-time highs over
to this pivot on September 4th that
almost was tagged today at $234.70.
Beyond that, the top of the parallel
channel at $23,968.
So, Nvidia has a lot of stacked
resistance up here in this tight range,
but so far the chart's actually looking
really good, making higher lows on the
chart. should be making a beline up
here, I would say, within the next week
or so to tag that $240 level. All right,
guys, that wraps up trading the close.
Thank you guys so much for tuning in and
watching today. Don't forget to like and
subscribe to the video. Uh, leave some
comments down below. Tell me what what
charts you want to look at this week. We
got a lot going on, but I'm more than
happy to take a few look at these charts
for you, go over these key details. Um,
otherwise, can't wait to be back out
here with you tomorrow and go through
the rest of the charts. Until then,
guys, have a fantastic day. We'll see
you on the charts.