My Trading Game Plan | September 28, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
[music] analysis. Logic and charts beat
hypes and narratives every time. Now I
teach investors the same techniques that
made me a multi-millionaire. This is my
trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
We've got a big day. We have oil pushing
up, the 10-year yields pushing up again.
Are we about to break the next key level
on the 10-year yield, which could send
us as high as 5.5%?
We'll watch the chart. The chart is
likely going to tell us. And again,
right now I'm expecting the yields to
hit five and a quarter to 5. uh 27 and
then pull back on the 10-year, thus
continuing the bullish move on the
markets. Oil bouncing today after Trump
rejected a deal from Iran, but
ultimately negotiations are continuing
with WTI still trading below $100 a
barrel. Let's jump into the S&P futures
here. We can see that we were down
pretty sharply in the early session
here, all the way down here. But look,
we are seeing oil pull back a little bit
off of its highs. Yields are coming in
with that and the markets are catching a
small bid. Now, we're still net negative
on the day going into the open to the
tune if we flip to the daily chart shows
about a third of 1%. So listen, a third
of 1% nothing to write home about. It's
pulling back just a little bit off of
what we gained last week. But the key is
does the yield break out above that five
and a quarter zone? That's the next
chart I want to go into because it's
likely the most important thing going
into this week. Now, before we look at
that chart, remember we have key
economic data. This is a power packed
week. So, you're going to have to be
ready for this. As a trader, I'm zoned
in like crazy. So, we have PCE data,
which is the favored gauge of inflation
for the Fed on Wednesday. Friday, we
have the nonfarm payrolls report. And
then going back to Wednesday after the
bell, we have Micron earnings. And
Micron will be important for the AI
trade. Are we at peak memory prices? Are
they about to come in? If they are,
Micron has a lot of downside or if they
give rosy guidance, maybe we can
continue to push up in the near term.
All right, let's flip over to the
10-year yield chart and take a look.
This is what we're talking about here.
This is the weekly chart. I want to flip
back to the daily. So, here's your daily
candle today, which is showing that
yields are up 0.05 or five basis points
to a level of 5.215%.
So, it's not a huge move by any stretch,
but it is nonetheless a move up and that
is putting pressure on the markets. Now,
this trend line up here, that's the
magic line. That's the line that as long
as we hold at or below, I think the
markets have a pullback on yields and a
continued rally on the markets. Now, I'm
going to flip over to the weekly chart
because I want to zoom out and show you
where that comes from. This trend line
goes all the way back to July of 2006
and June of 2007.
And you can see right here. I mean, look
at this chart. Let me zoom in as much as
I can. These two high pivots and look at
where we currently are on the 10-year,
which explains why this level is so
important. Now, just a side note here,
if you go back to 2007, the US deficit
or debt was basically 30 trillion or
below. So, we're now back at the same
interest rates we were on the 10-year
back then, but with 33%
or more debt on the balance sheet of the
United States. So, it's actually a much
more taxing type factor when you have
another 10 trillion in debt that you're
paying five and a quarter for when you
sell 10-year Treasuries. All right.
Let's go back here. I want to flip back
to the S&P 500 chart. Remember, this is
a very important chart because it's
guided us to stay bullish on the markets
in the near term. And right now, even
with us opening a little bit lower
today, we're still well above the
neutral line. The neutral line for me
remains at 57 or 7575,
so 7575 on the S&P. We remain above
that. In fact, if we take a trend line
right here and connect it to this high
through this high, we can see that we
actually broke out of the bull flag
pattern. So, that's even more bullish.
Here's your bull flag. Here's your
breakout retest. We'll see if we
continue up this week. Now, what are the
markets watching for this week? Because,
you know, arguably the markets want the
economy to stay relatively strong, and
they want inflation to come in, but they
don't want the economy to be too strong,
right? So, it's almost like, is the
porridge too cold? Is it too hot? Or is
it just right? And that's what the
market wants. The market wants the
economy to stay strong because that will
keep earnings growth strong in the S&P
and allow stocks to continue up. But, if
it's too good, if the economy's too good
with the jobs numbers on Friday, it will
then push the Fed to likely hike twice
into year-end versus just once. And I
think that's what we're dealing with
now. It's either you're Are you going to
get a hike in in October or December? Or
are you going to get a hike on both of
those last meetings from the Federal
Reserve? And again, we'll be watching
that closely. But right now, S&P remains
bullish on the charts. Another chart to
watch, oil. Now, notice this, guys. This
is your candle today on oil. Right now,
we're trading at 97.68,
but earlier today, when the S&P was at
the lows and the 10-year yield was at
its highs,
oil was up much, much more. And we can
see that by if we flip over to the
10-minute chart, look at this. Oil's
actually been pulling back beautifully
since it got nearly to $100 a barrel on
WTI this morning. It's pulled all the
way back to 97.50.
Now, if we flip back to the 10-year
yield, you can see how at the same time
oil declined, the 10-year yield topped
out and has been pulling back. If we
flip over to the S&P futures, we can see
that exactly at that time, when oil
started to pull back, the S&P futures
began to move up. So again, it's all
coordinated here. It's all working
together. Essentially, it's the dog
wagging the tail or the tail wagging the
dog. Either way, these three things are
all intertwined. And really, we have to
keep an eye on all of them, right? I
would say yields are the most important,
but oil then affects yield, so that's
important, and then the S&P will go
inverse to whatever those are doing. All
right. So let's go on to a couple other
things. We've got to talk about the
precious metals. The precious metals are
in free fall today. Now, what's so
important about this, guys? And this is
a huge thing, because remember,
in Friday's game plan, or check that in
Thursday's, cuz I was out on Friday, I
discussed how the precious metals, gold
and silver, were stuck in these kind of
ascending parallels where we could
really see just a lot of choppy action
and I said, "Expect choppy action as
long
as the underbelly of the trend line, as
long as the lower trend line of the
parallel does not break." Well, guess
what's happening?
They're breaking.
So, what this means is that we're going
to see potentially more downside on
gold. Now, listen, it's early in the
day. Maybe gold can rally back and catch
this trend line back right around 4250,
but it is significantly lower today.
This is a big drop on on gold down 3.2%.
If you look historically just at the
last month, you have this drop here,
this one here, this green, but overall,
this is one of the biggest candles we've
seen in the last month and it's breaking
this key support. So, what does this
mean? Well, it number one means there is
going to be some additional technical
support right in here. So, right around
41 and a quarter to 4100, there'll be
some support, this little area right
here, but it does open the door for us
to retest 3900 and change on the
downside. Now, I have will say this, if
you recall
months ago before we broke out of the
wedge, I talked about how gold could
maybe go down to 3500. Now, I don't want
to get people excited that it's going
there now, but at least now that we've
broken this support, we have to start
monitoring those lower levels. So, for
instance, if we take out that low, now
it opens the door to that level. Now,
again, I right now don't think there's a
high probability we go to 3500, but it
certainly is higher than it was per
Friday's close when we were still
holding key support. I mean, this is a
big deal. If you're a precious metals
investor, this is a big deal. Same thing
for silver. Silver ascending trend line,
parallel ascending trend line, we're
breaking it today. Where do we end at
the end of the day? But does this open
the door to potentially going down to
this area around 55 on silver? It
certainly does as we're trading near 61
right now. And one of the things we want
to watch is we sometimes see a retrace
to the scene of the crime. If you've
been following me for even a month or
two, you've probably heard me say
retrace to the scene of the crime
probably
20 times, maybe more for just a month.
It is such a key setup that happens over
and over again that we have to be aware
of it. Now, what that means to branch
out is that when you have a trend line
that breaks out, right? It looks great.
Everyone gets super bullish, but there's
some weird force in technical analysis
that wants to draw it back to home base
right here before it makes its next leg
higher. And so, really what we could be
looking at here, and again, I'm
extrapolating out a ways, but is it
possible that silver could come down
here before getting its next big up
move? That would be essentially this
trend line, which we broke out, a
retrace to that scene of the crime. All
right? So, again, these are all things
as a technician
I'm always watching. Got to watch it.
All right? Now, again, odds, just like
in poker, if you ever watch World Series
of Poker, you see people's hands on the
screen on the TV, and you see when the
when you they turn over another card,
the odds immediately shift. That's what
charts are doing for us. If we read the
charts correctly, we then know that
every candle we get changes the odds of
what is the likely outcome in the near
term. Now, the the outcome long-term I
think is pretty much in ingrained,
meaning that if the government doesn't
get their you know what in order and the
Fed continues to go back to the easy
money policies when we go into a
recession, well, then inevitably
precious metals will long-term go up
just like any physical asset, right? In
terms of dollars. But, shorter term,
that's where we're playing that game of
poker and we've got our hand and we've
got other people's hands and we're
watching to see what the probabilities
are changing and and becoming. Very
interesting stuff. All right. So, that's
the precious metals. We'll we'll cycle
out. We looked at oil already. We'll
cycle out with natural gas. Nat gas
pulling back again today. Had this
amazing move up and then just slammed
back down. All right. Again, this was a
great move. I actually think this is
probably a viable opportunity on natural
gas down here. If we look at this
technical zone right here, you can see
high pivot. We briefly got above, never
confirmed. High pivot here and now we're
back into it. I haven't gone long nat
gas again after being long with smart
money commodity members, but I am eyeing
it very closely for a potential long
trade here. So, I'll keep you guys in
the loop on that. And then, Bitcoin,
before we get into some major movers in
the stock market, Bitcoin's pulling back
today, but honestly, Bitcoin now looks
the best compared to gold and silver.
And if you put the three next to each
other, which is the strongest chart?
Bitcoin's the strongest chart right now
by far. Now, with the S&P, S&P is still
actually looking very bullish. So,
they're kind of in alignment there. But,
Bitcoin after going through some nasty
nasty periods for almost the last year,
looking a lot healthier assuming it
holds this key technical level here.
This now becomes the major support high
pivot. We could see how price here
rallied up, hit, rejected, hit,
rejected, hit, paused and broke out.
This now would be the retrace to the
scene of the crime here and you need to
see a hit of that and then a propel
propulsion move to the upside. That's
what you're watching for. All right.
Wow, lots to go over on this Monday,
guys. You think it's going to be quiet
coming into the week? No, not even
close. So, we're going to move to stocks
now and there's some big movers this
morning. So, first off, Nvidia announced
an additional $170 billion in buybacks.
The stock is up today even with the
stock market down on that news. I would
just like to put in perspective that
$170 billion sounds massive, but to a $5
trillion company, it's relatively small.
But, it's enough to get the stock moving
up today on the day. So, if we take a
look here, you can see
Nvidia, once that news was announced,
nice pop and we've now kind of pushed
up. In terms of trading this on the
daily chart, there's not much here,
right? I mean, maybe we fill this gap.
That's kind of what I'm thinking is that
we go up here to test this physical gap.
You can see we came very close to
filling the gap here, right over here,
but it never filled. So, that's it right
around 236 and change. If we can get
through that, we could move up to the
high end of this trend line. That to me
would be the short level. I won't short
gap fill. We kind of kissed it already,
but if we move up here, I would consider
a short. That would be around currently
around 260 depending on where we hit on
the line. Another move mover and shaker
this week. This one's not really making
a big move today. It's fractionally
lower, but Micron reports earnings, I
believe, Wednesday after the bell and
therefore we have to be looking at it,
right? What are the levels going into
earnings? If it pops on earnings,
where's it going to hit resistance? If
it falls on earnings, how low could it
go? So, that's what we want to do here.
And the first thing that I see is the
gap fill. So, if we rallied up into this
on into gap fill going into earnings. I
would favor a pullback on earnings. This
is also the 786 Fibonacci, but it's a
major gap fill. On the downside, we can
easily take a trend line right here.
Look at the beauty of this. I mean,
again, when you get excited about charts
like me and maybe you guys aren't, but
that's okay. I get it. To me, this is
amazing. Low pivot, the gap down here,
and look at where the last support was.
So, if we sell on earnings, this level
around 975 would be the first major
level of support. So, all of these
things kind of in vogue and things that
I'm watching. I have my upside
resistance. I have my lower level. I'm
going to continue to analyze these going
into earnings each day to see if things
change just like we talked about with
probabilities, but really, Micron,
you know, for kind of just before
earning season, this is a fun one to
have this week for us as technical
traders. Now,
there's one more stock we're going to
look at today. It is MongoDB. MongoDB,
they announced that their CEO is
stepping down. And anytime a CEO steps
down, the markets get a little bit
nervous on this. And take a look at the
drop on MongoDB. This is incredible,
guys. What a drop. The stock right now
is down over 23%
on this news. Now, part of it was they
have this big conference they're doing,
and they reaffirmed guidance. Now, you
may say, "Well, they reaffirmed
guidance. Why is it dropping this much?"
Well,
we're in the world of AI.
If a company that is exposed to AI
doesn't increase guidance, it's an
automatic sell. It just is. The markets
are reacting that way. And that's what
we're seeing in MDB here with a big
drop. Now, having said that, when I see
a drop like this, I get excited because
it means potential day trades. So, look
at this. If we go to our daily chart,
we're now all the way down to 314.
There's an obvious major technical level
right here. I mean, look at this level
at 294. Pivot low, pivot low, pivot low.
If we can just flush a little bit more.
Look at how much it's down already. Just
a little bit more, this is going to be a
golden opportunity here, folks, for a
potential day trade today. So, it's
exciting, folks. There's always
something to trade. It's the greatest
thing and what it does is it reminds me
that I don't have to ever trade. You
know, if I miss trades and I miss them
every day, it doesn't matter because
there's always new trading opportunities
out there.
All right, you miss one. I I honestly
miss 20 a day. But, if I catch three or
two or even one, I'm making money. But,
I'm disciplined where I'm taking
high-quality setups. All right, I've got
to get going to my trading room. You
guys are amazing. Please like,
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Investing. We got so many other good
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even We have a new options show that's
going to be debuting on options trading
in the next couple weeks. Stay tuned
here, guys. This is the place for data
and charts and no BS. Have a great rest
of your day and thank you again. Take
care.