My Trading Game Plan | September 29, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway [music]
and I was a losing trader until I
mastered technical analysis. Logic and
charts beat hype and narratives every
time. Now I teach investors the same
techniques
>> [music]
>> that made me a multi-millionaire. This
is my trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
We have a lot of news hitting the
headlines today. We're waiting on key
economic reports that I'll go over in
just 1 minute. Futures on the S&P are
slightly higher as oil is falling this
morning. That is bringing the 10-year
yield in just a bit. Now remember, the
10-year yield hit a major pivot high
going back to 2006-2007.
This was resistance. So far it is
holding and that is unbelievably
important as we come into tomorrow's PCE
inflation data and Friday's non-farm
payrolls data. All right, so again,
we're going to be gauging this. This is
a do or die for either a breakout in the
10-year yield which will likely slam the
markets heavily versus a pullback which
would let us go to new all-time highs.
All right, let's jump into the charts
here right off the bat. Taking a look at
the S&P futures. You can see overnight
we were down pretty sharply because oil
was actually higher. But then oil began
to fall and as oil fell, the futures
rallied up as the 10-year interest rate
or yield pulled back. Now this morning
just over the last 60 minutes here, we
have seen a little bit of a bounce in
oil and a little pull rally in 10-year
yields and that of course has brought
the market in just a bit. But if you
look at where we closed yesterday to
where we're going to open, it will be a
slightly higher open. Now, today we do
have some key economic reports that that
be watching. The first is the JOLTS
report. Now, the JOLTS report is job
openings. Now, again, this isn't one
that's highly publicized, but when we're
watching interest rates this closely, it
is important. You can see last month, we
saw 7.27 million openings for jobs. It's
expected to come down just a bit. Now,
the market, as a trader, I'm always
wondering, well, what's the number need
to be to either create a rally or create
a fall in the markets? And the answer's
very simple. You want a slightly weaker
number here. In other words, if
consensus is 7.23 million, you want it
around 7.19
million. Just light enough to say the
economy is not robustly strong, but not
so light to say that we are headed into
a recession. On the other side, if this
number comes in hotter, meaning higher
amount of job openings, it tells you the
economy is cranking along, and odds of
Fed rate hikes and yields will likely go
up. All right, so that's one of the key
reports here. And then, we're also going
to watch the consumer confidence numbers
at 10:00 a.m. today. Prior was 89.4.
Consensus for today is 89.2.
Same thing. The markets want a slightly
weaker number than consensus, but not so
weak that it freaks everyone out about a
recession. Anything hotter, 90 or above,
yields will likely start to push up. So,
again, economic news because everything
is in relation to inflation and the
economy, which then is inflationary if
the strong economy is there, these
economic reports actually do mean quite
a bit. So, I'll keep you guys posted on
what those numbers come out to be here
at 10:00 a.m. today on Verified
Investing. Don't forget we have the app,
and if you download the app, there is so
much free insight, technical analysis.
In fact, I published an article this
morning on on a technical analysis setup
as well as two chart post alerts, all
free when you download the Verified
Investing app and you will basically
just create a free account. You don't
even have to buy anything. I don't even
want you to buy anything. Just check out
the free quality content. It will make
you a better investor and trader. All
right. So, let's jump back into the
charts here. We were just looking at the
S&P futures and what we see here is
again, S&P futures are up slightly, but
let's go check in on the S&P 500 daily
chart. Now, yesterday we did have a
pullback day. S&P was down about 3/4 of
a percent. Now, the kicker here is as
long as we remain above this line, we
should remain bullish on the markets. In
fact, you could argue you have the
beginnings of an inverse head and
shoulder pattern formation here. If we
kind of start to curve up in the next
few days, if that plays out, I think we
all know where the markets would head. A
measured move would take us right up to
about 8,000 on the S&P and as long as we
remain above the neutral zone, which is
these two lines right in here, I will
remain bullish on the S&P overall. Now,
keep in mind, just because I'm bullish
on the S&P doesn't mean that I'm not
nervous about what lies ahead further
out from just a few next the next few
weeks. And also, it doesn't mean that
I'm long everything. I absolutely with
members have some shorts out there, but
they're very strategically taken. In
other words, they're charts that have
gone vertical way too far ahead of their
skis and I'm looking for a short-term
pullback. In general, the portfolio that
everyone, if you're a member at Verified
Investing, you see
you see that I'm generally long the
markets, but quality names. I'm focusing
in on quality names. In fact, I'll talk
about a few of those trade setups in
just a little bit of time. Now, one
other headline that I thought was very
interesting today. In fact, two
headlines. One was from Anthropic. So,
the Anthropic IPO documents leaked and
this is kind of scary, guys. One of the
risks and remember in an IPO, you have
to release the risks to your company in
the IPO documents. So, like, well,
what's the risk? Is our business going
to slow down? Are there going to be com-
Is there going to be competition? Are
our margins going to shrink? That's
normal companies. All right? That's like
every other company out there. AI
companies, check this out.
AI could end humanity.
That's what was in one of theirs,
essentially. I'm paraphrasing, but the
idea here is, I mean, how scary is that?
That when you go as an IPO, you have to
say that yes, we could end up
annihilating mankind. And again, I'm not
judging whether or not AI is good or
bad. It is what it is. It's probably
what humans make of it. But ultimately,
I thought that was amazing to see a
headline like that in an IPO document
release. Or it it really wasn't meant to
be released, but it kind of leaked out.
Now, another one that I thought was
interesting here and this speaks to kind
of relative weakness in the market even
with markets near all-time highs. The
Aura Ring, I don't know if you guys know
it. I don't have one, but those are the
rings that monitor your health and all
of your vitals that people wear and they
do great, by the way. Profitable
company, fantastic, but they did pull
their listing. They were supposed to go
public tomorrow and they canceled their
IPO and postponed it because they said
market conditions were not good enough
or great. Now, you might say, well, but
the S&P's only 2% off all-time highs.
How is that even possible that it's not
a good enough environment? I mean, what
how much better does it have to be? And
this is the kicker, folks, is that if
you look at the underbelly of the market
and you look at how many stocks in the
S&P are trading above their 50 moving
average or below, more stocks are
trading below their 50 MA than above.
And what that tells us is that there is
a group of mega market caps cap stocks,
CrowdStrike, Microsoft had a great rally
lately, Meta has had a great rally,
Nvidia had a great move yesterday. There
is a group of mega caps that are keeping
the market up. But all of these other
ones have drifted down significantly.
Now, for me, that actually means uh if
those other companies kind of just stall
out, the rest of the S&P can lift up and
push the overall S&P higher. But it is
interesting to see that the underlying
underbelly of the markets is not strong
right now. All right, let's jump back to
the charts and take a look here, guys.
S&P again, we'll watch to see what
happens today. Right now, markets are
positioned to open slightly higher. The
reasons for a slightly higher open are
these right here. The 10-year yield is
basically flat to fractionally lower.
Remember, it was lower a couple hours
ago, markets were up more, and then it
started to bounce back up. Now,
what you're watching here is this trend
line. I'm flipping over the weekly, so
we can go all the way back to the pivot
high from 2006-2007.
That's where we are right now. Now, I
always tell you guys, a level is to be
respected until it's broken. So, we got
to respect this level. As of now, I have
to think that it's the chances or
probabilities favor a pullback. But if
we break through this, your next move up
comes right in here. Look at these two
levels going back here, and this is
around 5.45 to 5.5%.
That would be your next upside target on
yields if this 5.25%
level breaks. All right? And again, it
doesn't seem like a lot, but that would
be the equivalent of another 25 basis
point rate hike by the Fed just to get
from where we currently are to that next
target, which looks so small on the
chart. That's the equivalent again of
the Fed raising rates 25 basis points,
which by the way, odds unless we see
weakness in the economic data coming out
and better inflation numbers and oil
coming in, the odds are now favoring a
rate hike in October and December for
the markets. Now, again, markets already
pricing it in, so it probably won't have
a big effect. I think I would take the
under in that any sort of signal that
the Fed can take the pressure off, they
will. Um I think the Fed wants rates to
kind of not go up so fast because this
is where you break things, right? This
is where you break the system. When
rates go up too far, too fast, it
triggers defaults, right? All of a
sudden, borrowing costs spike and can
literally crash the economy. Somewhat of
of something like we saw in 2007.
Obviously, there were many other factors
involved there, but again, I don't think
the Fed minds higher rates, but they
don't want rates, the rate of change,
how quickly it goes up is a big issue.
All right, so that's number one. Crude
oil, take a look at this, guys. WTI is
having a great drop. Now, this is very
interesting, and I have a lot of very
interesting things, as you guys know,
but basically, if you told me oil was
down three and a quarter percent today
on WTI, I would say rates would be down
more than basically where they are right
now, which is essentially flat. What
does that mean? It tells you the market
is not only concerned with the price of
oil, but also concerned with other
things like debt, like the amount of of,
you know, paper out there of debt debt
being sold off, um the economy
potentially running too hot. There's
other things going on here, not just the
fact that oil prices are high. If it was
just oil, then we'd see a pretty solid
drop today on the 10-year yield. So,
just something to keep in mind on that
front. But, look at this on crude oil.
If we look at crude oil, this is awesome
here. So, we actually have a pivot high
here. Look at this trend line right
here. See, I'm connecting the three
highs
or this this gap right here. So, low
pivot, high pivot, high pivot. Now, we
bring a trend line a parallel down and
look what it does. It aligns perfectly
with these lows. And if you followed
along yesterday, I talked about how this
was beginning to form a bear flag in
here and how we were likely headed down
to about $90 a barrel. And I still think
we're going to get there, possibly this
week. That'll be first test of technical
support. If this breaks, we're going to
see a lot more downside on oil. I think
to see it break, we would have to have
some sort of agreement between the US
and Iran. All right. The dollar today is
showing a little bit of relative
strength, a lot of resistance up in this
range. I would expect a pullback on the
US dollar, but still has been a
tremendous move. If we look at gold
today, gold is catching a small bid
today after a massive decline yesterday.
Yesterday, we came into that 4100 level,
which we talked about as being technical
support. Now again, I do I am concerned
that this trend line if it confirms a
breakdown today or tomorrow, it could
open the door for a move down to 30,
basically 37 to 3800, possibly as low as
3500. Okay. Now again, a lot of people I
I talked about 3500 a couple months ago.
We then broke out on the chart and it
was like, okay, well, is it still going
to happen? We've broken out. There's
this tendency to retrace to breakout
trend lines. That would be down to 3500.
And again, I hold gold.
In fact, I nibbled on a swing trade
yesterday. So, we're up a little bit on
that today. I would prefer if gold just
goes up to 10,000. But I also don't mind
it going down because again, my
long-term view stays strong and I
wouldn't mind buying more at a discount.
All right, same thing with silver. If we
look at silver here, silver again broke
key support. Again, short-term support's
going to be right in this range around
60 bucks. If it breaks 60, we could be
headed back to 55 to 54 and a retrace to
the scene of the crime would put us at
50 or below per ounce, which is pretty
shocking to think silver, which was $120
an ounce in January, could be at 50 or
below. That would be a massive, massive
decline. By the way, just something I
haven't done before, I want to take the
2025 low on silver and I want to just
see, oh my goodness, look at that. That
would be essentially a 786 Fibonacci
retrace from the beginning of this bull
run here to the highs. And look at that
fib right there, coexisting just below
50. So those Those are the types of
things I look for is like, you know, I
usually don't do fibs right out of the
gate, but when I have a confluence of
trend lines, I then look to see does a
fib also align. And if it aligns, it
adds probability to that scenario. All
right, so again, just something to keep
in mind here as we continue to watch the
trade. Now, natural gas continues to
come in. Natural gas had an amazing pop.
It's now retracing. I did nibble on a
little nat gas long again after selling
into this big pop um as it comes back in
here. So again, I will keep an eye on
this, but I'm going to remain neutral to
bullish on nat gas as long as we hold
above this trend line, which I would
consider to be the neutral zone uh or
trend line on nat gas. All right, now,
Bitcoin. Bitcoin is bouncing up. I will
say this for Bitcoin is that overall, it
is the strongest in the group. So if you
look at the S&P, gold and silver
compared to Bitcoin.
all of a sudden, it was the weakest for
the last year until this recent
breakout. Now it's the strongest, but
there's something that I'm a little
concerned about, and it's more
concerning for the altcoins which have
pumped massively. Let's take a look at
this. If you look at Bitcoin dominance,
and this is key, guys, Bitcoin dominance
is has broken out to the upside of a
wedge pattern, and it's done multiple
retraces to the scene of the crime. Now,
this tells me that Bitcoin dominance is
likely to go up, right? Now, many people
would say, "Well, wouldn't that mean
Bitcoin's price goes up?" Well,
historically, it doesn't necessarily
mean that. Because if Bitcoin goes up,
usually the altcoins go up 2x or 3x of
what Bitcoin goes up. More than likely,
it could mean that Bitcoin goes down,
let's say 1 or 2% and altcoins drop 6 to
10%. And so again, I don't think there's
a lot of downside on Bitcoin at this
point as long as it holds key levels,
but it does speak to a weakening
potentially in the crypto markets that
we must monitor. And I know Bitcoin
dominance, again, this is a good chart
to follow. It shows you Bitcoin versus
these other altcoins, but it is
something again that has my radar
chirping here as I watch to see what
happens in the near term. let's flip
over to some stocks here. CarMax
reported earnings this morning. It's not
a big company by any stretch, but I did
want to just mention it. The stock is
trading higher. If we look at the daily
chart, not really much, right? I mean,
it's off of its highs over here, but
it's bounced back, and it's only up
slightly on earnings. Not much to write
home. I don't have a tradeable level on
this. And then CCL, which is Carnival
Cruise, just reported earnings at 9:15
this morning. That tells me that it beat
earnings at least initially. I don't
know guidance yet, but the earnings came
out solidly. The stock is spiking to the
upside. But same thing, it was beaten
down here, and it's getting a little bit
of a reprieve bounce. There will be some
resistance though around $24. These
pivot lows, can it get through 24?
That'll be first resistance. If it gets
through there, I may start to look at a
trade for a day trade short around 2550.
You can see right here, there's a lot of
resistance right around this level. You
can see this pivot low here, here, here,
and here before it broke down. That
would be key to watch. I would also
throw in my fib there and say, "Okay,
well, what from here to I got to throw I
got to quickly edit my fibs to show the
other fibs here. But if we throw in our
other fibs, look at that. Our 50%
retrace would be right at that same
level. So, that confluence would give me
additional confidence in a potential
short for only a day trade there, not a
swing trade, just a day trade. Now, I
did talk about some buying that I've
been doing with smart money uh stocks
investors where they see my live
portfolio, exact share size, live P&L
going up and down in real time. And I
want to go over just a couple of those
setups cuz I do think they're
intriguing. One is this Aon company.
Look at the drop. And this a lot of this
has to do with AI and the worry that AI
is going to eat into their business.
They're a financial company um and kind
of you've seen the banks roll over, too.
But look at this massive technical
support right down here. The RSI is now
nearing 20, which is extreme oversold. I
think this one has a shot. Maybe it
pierces 70 today or so, but this is
starting to get in a level where we
should see a significant bounce. So,
that one's interesting. Boeing, Boeing
fell sharply yesterday. I have a major
pivot low here at 17750.
If it dumps into that today, I'll likely
day trade it. Maybe I'll swing trade it
as well. And then Nike, I got to mention
Nike here. Nike had a good day
yesterday. Uh today it's kind of just
holding steady, but look at this
descending trend line. Beautiful trend
line. And the reason why I highlight
Nike
is because not only is it at technical
support, but they have earnings Thursday
after the bell. And so this is going to
be interesting. Does the technical
support and how oversold the stock is,
does it lower expectations enough where
essentially
the stock can can bounce on earnings.
Now, I don't think earnings are going to
be spectacular. In fact, they might be
downright nasty. But the stock is
already showing us that it's downright
nasty. And so the question is can they
show a glimmer of light, a glimmer of
hope? If they can, the technicals are
telling me it might be due for a bounce.
We'll see. Again, I'm long, but we'll
see again. Will I be right? Will I be
wrong? You know I lay it on the line for
you guys, absolutely. Now, the last
thing I want to mention guys is our
sponsor here, Rumble and the Rumble
wallet. And you guys know we got to
thank our sponsors and a lot of you guys
probably tune out right now, but I'm
telling you this is what makes it
possible for our staff to be here and
everyone else. So I need you guys to
help support our sponsors because of
that. Otherwise, if we didn't have
sponsors, we couldn't have a great staff
and do all this research. But the bottom
line is Rumble and the Rumble wallet,
it's where I swing trade my crypto. I
have the the app on my phone. And what's
so cool about this is that really the
the whole point is to be able to tip
creators out there. So if you see a
great video on on Rumble, you can you
can use your wallet to just tip them and
say great job. Kind of like a a great a
pat on the back if you will. And what's
cool is Rumble right now is offering $10
if you use verified 10, that and that's
the number 10, verify 10, that code when
you sign up, they'll give you $10 in
your wallet where you can use it to to
essentially tip the creators. And I
think that's really nice of them. Like
like again, they want to incentivize
that interaction and telling people that
it's great. So anyways, I digress, but
go check it out guys. It is a great app
for crypto. You can do gold in there as
well via tether. It's fantastic. All
right, on that note I've got to get
going guys. Have a great rest of your
day. Let's go make some money. Take
care.