Trading The Close | September 29, 2026

Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading to
Close. My name is Drew Dose. Now guys,
the markets in general today were down
across the board mainly because that
10-year yield pushed up and pierced the
2007 highs, guys. That is a big deal.
You would anticipate the markets
actually pushing and pulling down lower,
but they didn't, guys. And I'm going to
show you why I believe that is
occurring, guys. But first off, we had
Jolt's number uh happened in a come out
print this morning. Came out weaker than
anticipated. We got PCE data that's
coming out tomorrow. And then we've got
the jobs data that's going to be coming
out later this week. So, we do have a
lot of information for the Fed to digest
that will be likely moving the needle
for potential rate hikes later this
year. But it's like the markets have
already priced it in the way the 10-year
is reacting, guys. So, let's jump into
the charts, break down today's price
action. We had some uh stocks that were
moving. Uh but in general, a lot of it
was sideways because we have oil falling
in the 10-year yield pushing higher, but
we still have key levels to go through
with charts potentially on breakout
pattern scenarios. So, let's get into
the charts, guys, into the S&P 500.
First off, with the SPY daily ETF, we
see price action down today.18%.
We closed here at 764 and 20 up about 50
after hours. Mainly though, guys, we
didn't even get near nor touch this
declining trend line. One of which price
has really been interacting with uh
about five out of the last six trading
days. Instead, sending price a little
bit lower and still closing within this
range. So, it wasn't that big of a down
day. As I said, with the 10-year yield
pushing up, we should have seen a little
bit more selling pressure. We did not
get that. That's telling them telling
you the markets are being resilient,
folks. Now, if we do have further
selling, I'm still eyeing this previous
pivot high as a level of support at
76040.
To the upside, got to be managing and
monitoring this declining trend line as
that's clearly the line in the sand for
the S&P 500 to continue with this upward
momentum on the charts. Next up, the
IXIC. Not much new to report here. We
were down, but guys, we should be down
much further. Again, I illustrate to you
guys the power of a breakout and
extending move from this declining trend
line that we have on the charts. I was
here ready for price action to keep
hitting the gas pedal and push up on the
chart for the NASDAQ and get jammed up
here at 28,000 points. That very well
still could happen in the near future,
but so far price is doing a good job
staying above. We didn't hit the trend
line today nor yesterday. Bulls, you
want to see price get back up in this
range of 27,000 points. that will help
create some spacing from this area of
support. The more and more we hit on it,
the more and more likely we are to break
through. That's why bulls want to see
price separate from that area as quickly
as possible. Speaking of areas
continually getting hit, guys, this 618
fib retrace the 60758 on the chart on
the SMH continues to get pounded. You
see today we opened above it, even
pushed higher looking like we were
trying to close above, but not yet again
today. We still haven't done so on the
push up. And I want to remind any of the
old viewers as well as new viewers,
we've been following this breakout ever
since price action broke above this
declining trend line. We had a series of
breakouts for the SMH to accomplish to
get to the point that we're at. And
look, we're putting in bullish
consolidation. That is the best scenario
that you want to see after a breakout
from the declining trend line, a
breakout from this parallel and
maintaining a breakout above the key
moving averages with the 50 moving
average now comfortably under the 20.
Getting into a healthy spacing scenario,
creating space for price to go higher on
the charts. Now, what would create the
semis and tech to go higher this week?
Well, guys, look no further than
tomorrow's earnings report with Micron.
That is what I anticipate that could
move the needle if we have a a robust
report, which I anticipate to to occur.
It's just how good is the guidance going
to be. We're going to look at some of
these stocks. Matter of fact, I guess we
could look at them right now. Look at uh
STX really just kind of doing nothing,
guys. And I'll throw off the moving
averages, but you see it's just
meandering right here, putting in
consolidation right on a potential
breakout attempt on the chart. That's
one of the cousins for Micron. Another
one is uh WDC doing a similar situation,
consolidating right here on this
declining trend line, trying to build
momentum for a breakout to go higher.
SNDK has already gotten above the key
trend line for its breakout. And look
how well the last two days of trading
have been doing to stay above that trend
line. Now, this breakout comes with the
measured move at $2,600.
So you see how critical tomorrow's
earnings report is going to be for
Micron as well as these other stocks
that are involved in memory plays uh in
the market. So this is going to be a key
critical earnings report for either a
fake breakout with price plunging back
down to the bottom of the parallel and
Sandis or us continuing to move higher
and lastly into Micron. You see here
I've got a whole bunch of uh TA on the
chart, but most importantly price is
maintaining above this horizontal trend
line designating much like SanDisk,
we're in breakout mode for right now on
Micron, but that all can change with an
earnings report tomorrow. So, we got to
be paying close attention to that
tomorrow. Next up, guys, one of the
biggest stories of the day, the 10-year
yield. Now, look at what is forming now.
We don't quite have a dogee, but we do
have a narrow body bar. We did pierce
this June 2007 high as I did uh discuss
earlier in the show. Got as high as uh
5.293%
before pulling back pretty comfortably
as you see here. Now look at the daily
RSI at the bottom of the screen. We have
been in and back in out and back above
overbought status. Anything over 70 on
the RSI is considered overbought in the
near term. What does that tell you?
tells you that price on this likely
wants to consolidate before it goes
higher if not
back. You can see how any sort of
extended move like what you see on this
weekly chart. All these green candles
pushing up, they're generally met with
red candles. You can see that on the
other side of the chart. A lot of green
candles are met with red candles. That's
just how the markets behave. And a lot
of this movement is likely pricing in
the rate hikes that the Fed has been
discussing. So what could happen if we
do start having a pullback? Well, two
things. I anticipate the 10-year yield
to likely consolidate amongst this
range. 5.021 up to 5.289. That would be
a big draw back down here to 5.021. And
if we do, every little down tick on the
10-year yield is being met in the
markets with people buying the market.
So you can see how I'm anticipating an
overbought scenario. we likely are due
to settle out somewhat on the 10-year
yield. Any sort of pullbacks are going
to allow opportunities for stocks like
what we just covered, uh, STX, WDC,
Sandis to continue to push higher and
move up the charts. And we're going to
cover some others that are on the verge
of potential breakout scenarios. But
look at another key piece of information
that I'm seeing that is also implying we
could be due for a near-term bounce. One
on the IWM. All right. Now, this is the
Russell 2000 index. We used to cover
this every day. Sometimes it's just not
as as robustly moving. However, in this
scenario with high yields, about 64% of
the stocks contained in this 2000 stock
index are not profitable and rely
heavily upon borrowing money to pay out
and and fund their ventures to keep
their business doors open. So, higher
interest rates are going to put pressure
on the majority of stocks here in the
IWM. Now, what do we see here on this
chart? Technically, we've cleanly been
inside a parallel channel ever since
back here, the April 2025 lows. Only hit
the bottom range of this parallel twice.
Now, we're making a beline straight down
to it. And you can see that level right
here around 27452.
All right. Now, what happens if I take
up a fib retrace from this most recent
move, the March 30th low on uh this
year, 2026. Look what stacks right in
this range, guys. Even if we get a
little pierce of the bottom of this
parallel, we have 27194, the 50% fib
retrace that also corresponds with the
pivot high back here in January of this
year. Considering that we're coming
straight down into it, guys, that tells
me IWM likely is getting ready for a
bounce. Throw in another factor. Look at
the RSI down here near 31.05.
Anything under 30 is considered oversold
in the near term. So, we have a uh yield
um uh heavy stressed uh index right here
with the IWM and it's coming down with
the yields going up getting to a place
of potential support. That implies what
I'm seeing that the 10-year yield likely
can start pulling back in the near term
having pierced that 2007 high. And if it
does, we likely will see some bounces in
the IWM, bounces in the SMH, bounces in
the uh NASDAQ and so forth. And in
addition, if the yields start coming in,
we're likely going to see bounces here
on the precious metals as well. Nice
breakdown on gold yesterday. You can see
with that big red candle had a nice
bounce. Didn't quite kiss this level or
hit it at 4,104. Instead, it left a
little bit of a gap and has bounced up
today with the yields pulling in ever so
slightly. So, nice rebound here on gold
near-term resistance. And this could be
a speed bump because notice we didn't
have an extending move with this
breakdown. Instead, it was just one big
red candle. So in that case, we could
make it back up to this trend line. It
may pause intraday, but then could
easily go back over that trend line. So
we we'll be watching to see what pattern
develops in the coming days here on
gold. Uh same thing's true on silver,
except for we did hit the level of
support. Now silver, as you saw
yesterday, barreled through this level
today, is popping right back on top. So
support's doing its job just about a
half a day late, putting price now above
that 6130 level. key level for silver to
get above would be this low range
consolidation. In essence, getting above
$63 would start flipping the script into
being more near-term bullish on silver.
Now, with this breakdown, guys, I
anticipate price to get up to 63 and get
rejected. I'm anticipating price on
silver coming down here near the $50
range uh in the near to medium term.
That could provide some very interesting
buying opportunities uh for us um for
holding some silver. Uh, next up into
Bitcoin. Not too much new to report
here. Consolidating basically flat on
the day, only up 0.15%. Now look here on
the weekly time frame. The only trend
line that really matters to me here on
the chart of Bitcoin is this inclining
trend line, which is the previous
neckline of the head and shoulders
pattern. That value uh is at $89,250.
We get price above that, man, that flips
the switch uh to Bitcoin being very,
very bullish near term. So, that's the
my line in the sand. Right now, we're
just kind of chopping sideways, trying
to build momentum to get up to that next
level. When the 10-year yield was
pushing higher, what did I say, guys?
The US oil chart was headed a little bit
lower. It created a divergence today
amongst the stocks. A lot of them, some
of them pushed up, some of them pushed
down, and then we ended up just kind of
settling out sideways for an awful lot
of stocks in the day because really
everything's coming unbuckled, right?
Nice down day here on oil coming in to
test the low pivots here from September
22nd as well as 23rd. Uh next area
support is going to be down here at the
bottom of this parallel channel. Could
very well get tagged there tomorrow at
$87.73
as long as price is still above this
declining trend line. It does carry a
measured move target off the charts guys
up here at $116.
Next up guys into NAT gas. We have
pegged this uh chart very nicely and set
for today. Hey, look at that big red
cell candle. Now, this is what makes Nat
Gas the widowmaker. Now, there was a
several uh reasons why Nat Gas sold off
the way it did. One, we had milder
weather and shoulder season demand, or
at least the forecasts are pointing
towards a milder winter in the northern
hemisphere to start. Secondly, we've got
robust production and abundant storage
that's already building up. And so, with
all this uh storage, it's just like the
old adage with supply and demand. We
have a heavy amount of supply, the
demand is not going to be as uh much.
thus bringing down the price. Uh plus we
also had some resolved infrastructure
issues uh that took place up in West
Virginia. So all of those combined sent
some of the bullish investors in that
gas to run for the exit door. I don't
think this runs over quite yet. Notice
where price stopped selling today right
here on top of all this consolidation.
The price in which price uh the point in
which price has recently broken out of.
Notice we didn't confirm underneath this
declining trend line. That's one of the
key valuable indicators, guys. We didn't
confirm. We didn't have an extended move
up above this one daily candle pushing
up that then turned this sell candle
even though it caught support into a
test. And you see price just plunged
down, gapped underneath this trend line
the following day. So that's the value,
guys. Be patient, sit back, sit on your
hands. You don't need to buy a breakout.
Wait for price to come back into support
where it is right now. I'd much rather
be a buyer here. If this support fails,
notice we've got another level of
support not far away down here. $2.99
on the charts. Only about nine cents
away on the chart of NAC gas. All right,
next up guys, into some stocks. First
off, KMAX or CarMax with uh some
earnings that they did report before the
bell. You see, they actually had a great
beat on earnings per share by 58% as
well as revenue by 11%. It was a
surprise beat on CarMax that sent the
stock um barreling higher, but man, it
gave up nearly all of its gains today,
closing back down here at $5923.
I started on the weekly time frame to
illustrate to you guys, we've have a
breakout on our hands on the chart of
CarMax coming back from this declining
trend line originating back in November
of 2021 connected over to this pivot
occurring in February of last year. And
if I zoom into the daily time frame, you
can see we already broke out came down
and right before earnings, look at all
of that consolidation. None of this had
a push down inside of this um broken
trend line. Instead, we just closed
above, below, above, below, above,
below. We just jockeyed back and forth
and then that basically provided the
bounce play. So, we already had a
breakout retrace bounce. We just really
sold off all from these previous pivots
right here, 6329. And so that tells me
CarMax is still in breakout mode, but
man, the institutions or investors
taking profit is not necessarily a good
sign. You want to see this breakout
bounce play and uh um continue to
extend. You don't want to see it really
get jammed up too much here at any one
of these pivots. Instead, you want
consolidation to occur. So, that tells
you there's significant resistance right
here in the $64 range in the near term
on CarMax, regardless if it stays in a
breakout scenario or not. Next up, guys,
breakout watch alert on LIIT. Look at
this push that finally put in another
daily close above this declining trend
line to show you guys we've been
contained within this uh inclining
parallel since back here in October of
last year. And you see now we've we've
hit this trend line several times.
Matter of fact, you can count them. Look
once here to originate. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8.
We're now hitting it the ninth time. now
putting in a daily close. Now, we've
done this before back here on September
9th, but what's going to be the caveat
or at least the catalyst to ensure that
we get a breakout? It likely will come
tomorrow afternoon after the close when
we get that micron reporting. So, that's
another stock that relies heavily on
this AI data center buildout. Will LIT
continue and confirm the breakout
tomorrow? If it does, any sort of
pullbacks down to X marks the spot at
952 can be a buying opportunity for
price to eventually attack brand new
all-time highs at this 50% area, the
parallel over $1,100. Another stock on
potential breakout watch is BE. Now, a
nice robust 10.8% gain on the chart of
BE, but notice it gave up all of its
gains above $300, closing down here at
$29,125.
But notice this beautiful bullish
consolidation that all started back here
on September 8th, building momentum for
eventually breaking out above this 50%
area of the parallel channel. Look, we
tried to do it on September 8th, tried
to do it on September 7th, tried again
here on the 25th as well as today. We
keep hitting this. It's weakening this
level, allowing for the next time to
increase probabilities for a breakout
with the near-term resistance coming on
this inclining trend line right around
$314.94.
But I anticipate if BE can accomplish
securing the 50% of this parallel, I
anticipate BE to eventually push up here
to $400 at the top of that uh parallel
channel. On the other side of the
equation, guys, check out DraftKings.
Look at this uh kerplunk on the chart
today. Down 7.42%.
This came on the back of news that
apparently on week one in the NFL,
DraftKing only had 3% market share in
the prediction sport betting field. So
that was not that good uh for
DraftKings. As you can see, investors
ran for the exit door. But guys, we're
coming up onto some very serious levels
uh of support for uh DraftKings. If I
scroll all the way back out, you can see
where price action is getting into most
recently and now. Now, you can see on
this little pivot that came before in
April of this year, we already hit the
middle portion of the W. So, in this
range, that that's already provided a
nice bounce. Now, we're coming into
these levels that could provide a
bounce, too. But that's not really what
I'm most concerned about. What I am,
though, check out what happens when I
throw some TA on the chart. And I remind
you guys, anybody can do this. Anybody
can draw a trend line. I know I'm no
artist, but I can draw a trend line. And
that's what I'm taking to the bank,
guys. So, you can see all I did was I
started a trend line at this low pivot,
and I'm going to connect it over to this
next major pivot. Now, I'm not
connecting this one because this was
more or less a test. It didn't break
down at that area. In fact, it caught
support by this very trend line that I'm
drawing. So, I'm going to draw that out
just a little bit further. I'm going to
connect it over right there to the
bottom. And you see, oh my gosh, guys,
we are getting very close to price. All
right. So, now I've got a reason to be
interested in going long on DraftKings,
right? Let me throw up another reason
because I don't like to just take one
factor trades. I want to have that
factor stack in my favor. Oh my gosh,
guys. Look what happened now. I just
threw up a fib retrace sequence from the
pivot low back here in 22 connected this
pivot high from all of this price action
moving up. What are we coming down to?
Uh $19.15
is the 786 fib. All right, I got two
factors now pointing towards that being
an awesome level for support. Now throw
in a third, guys. Look at this uh daily
RSI 29.15
oversold in the near term. On the
weekly, though, it is at 34. So, you've
got to be mindful even though these
levels do stack up with some very nice
levels of support. We still could be
heading a little lower, maybe even
pierce this before we get oversold uh on
the weekly time frame. But guys, this is
prime for a near-term potential bounce
on the chart of DraftKings. One that I
want to bring to your attention because
one that I am interested in seeing if it
goes a little bit lower, we could be
getting ourselves into some really,
really solid levels of support. All
right, guys. Uh, that wraps up today's
show. Thank you so much for tuning in.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to
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technical analysis on their charts. Now
guys, PCE data tomorrow is going to be
really important to follow, specifically
for the Fed and what they're deciding to
do with rate hikes. We'll be here
wrapping that all up tomorrow. Until
then, I hope you guys have a fantastic
day and we'll see you on the charts.
Take care, folks.