My Trading Game Plan | September 30, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and
narratives every time. Now I teach
investors the same techniques that made
me a multi-millionaire. This is my
trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
We've just gotten two big economic
reports out. The PCE inflation data just
hit at 8:30 and just prior to that at
8:15, we got the private employment
data, which is the precursor to the
non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
Let's take a look at what those numbers
showed. The ADP private sector
employment report came in hotter than
expected. So the actual number was
90,000 jobs created in the previous
month or in the month of September. That
was better than the forecast of 73,000
and much better than previously last
month. It came in weak at 38,000. So
this was a hot number initially. the
markets did not like it because
obviously a hot number means that
inflation may be pushed up and therefore
the Fed might have to be more aggressive
raising interest rates, right? But then
at 8:30 we got the PCE which is the
favored gauge of inflation for the
Federal Reserve. And take a look at
this. every number on here uh
year-over-year, core year-over-year,
month over month, core month over month,
all coming in lower or better than
expected. This tells us that inflation
is coming down. And what's interesting
here is even the headlines, including
food and energy, came in below consensus
estimates. Now, listen, year-over-year,
3.4% inflation is still ridiculous. It's
still well above what the Federal
Reserve has its target at, which is 2%.
But again, when you look at the
forecasted numbers here, the
year-over-year was expected to be 3.7%.
It came in at 3.4%.
Year-over-year core 3.3% forecast and 3%
is where the number landed. And then
onetenth better on the the core, which
is minus food and energy, both again on
those other numbers. So listen, the
bottom line is this data was better than
expected. That helped the futures push
up and yields come back in just a little
bit, giving the market a bid. Speaking
of the market, let's jump into the
charts here and take a look. This is
when we got really the data hit right
here at 8:15. This was again to 8:15 to
8:30. So the data comes out right here.
We see a surge, then we pull back and
are chopping slightly higher. Notice
this is where the futures bottomed a
little bit ahead of that data release at
8:15 and 8:30. Um, just to be clear, the
GDP report, the third revision did come
out at 8:30 as well. It came in a little
bit better than expected, but third
revisions, it's like we already got the
number, then they revised it once, now
this is the next revision. At a certain
point, it's like, okay, we get that, but
what's the next number for this com
this? What's this quarter? because the
third revision is still for two quarters
ago. Not the current quarter we're
ending today, but the one before. The
market is always forwardlooking. So, by
the third revision, the market doesn't
care that much. Okay. So, we're going to
get into all of this, guys. We're going
to go into all the charts and see
everything that's going on. We're going
to flip back to the S&P futures. From
the S&P futures, I want to go right to
the S&P because we did go down
yesterday. the S&P 500 was lower by the
tune of.17%.
Now, this was all happening while the
10-year yield, if we look at the daily
chart, the 10-year yield pushed as high
as 5.29%.
In fact, this push up broke the high
briefly from 2007,
which was 5.28%.
Now, what's important here for me is
that knowing how resistance works, often
times you'll pierce the level and then
you'll pull back. And so far, that's
exactly what we've done here. And what
that tells me is that resistance as of
now is still holding. And with the PCE
data being a little bit better than
expected, does it take a little bit of
pressure off the neck of the market,
allowing rates to come in a little bit,
which could push the market higher? Now,
if we look back at the S&P 500 here, the
S&P 500 is still in its bullish zone
right here. You can see it right here.
We're still above the neutral zone on
the S&P. So, I continue to be net long
the market. I still have a few shorts,
occasional levels on charts that have
gone parabolic that I like for
pullbacks, crowd strike, for instance,
stuff like that that have just gone to
the moon. But nonetheless, a majority of
my portfolio remains long the market.
And again, I would just point this out
is that we've kind of come down. In
fact, the markets have come down most
days. We've had a couple up days. In
fact, this was an up day on Friday. But
before that, it was down down. Even this
was down since we closed below that low.
Then we had an up day and then down and
down. So, we've had two, four, five of
six down days have been down on the S&P,
but we're still only a tiny bit from
all-time highs. If we go to our all-time
high, we are less than 2% from all-time
highs. And then also, I did see this,
and I pointed this out yesterday. Could
we be forming an inverse head and
shoulder pattern? We don't know yet. We
have to see. Does it curl up and rally
back up? But if that pattern does form,
it sets up for a move to 8,000 on the
S&P. All right. Now, there is one other
thing that I found fascinating and I
want to share it with you guys right
now. So, what's so fascinating and I
talked about this yesterday is that if
you look at how many stocks are trading
above their 50 moving average or below,
believe it or not, there are more stocks
trading below their 50 moving average
than above. Yet, the S&P is only 2% off
its all-time highs. How does that even
make sense? Well, it makes sense because
the mega caps have been keeping the
market up. Market cap matters, right? It
just it is size matters here. Um, but
look at this chart. I'm going to show
you a comparison of the equal weight S&P
to the regular S&P. And this really
illustrates the underlying weakness in
the market. Now, a lot of people would
say, "Oh man, that's really nasty
underlying weakness. That must be really
bad. I look at it the other way. I say,
"Wow." So, the S&P has held up within 2%
of all-time highs, even with most stocks
going down in the S&P. Take a look at
this chart, guys. This is the equal
weight versus the regular S&P 500. This
first chart is the equal weight, and we
are now down from the highs over 6% from
all-time highs on the equal weight. We
are down 6%. Yet the S&P is only down,
as you guys saw, less than 2%. And so
what this means, and and just to
understand the equal weight for some of
you that don't understand it, that's if
every company had the same waiting in
the S&P. So a company like Kagra or a
company like Craft Hind or a company
like Nike or a company, you know, if all
of those companies were equal weighted
to a Microsoft, to an Nvidia, then the
S&P would actually be down over 6% from
all-time highs. But because the big
boys, the big players are holding the
market up, S&P remains very near its
all-time high. And like I said, I look
at that as bullish. You might say,
"Well, why?" Because if all of the other
stocks are down this much, many at 52-
week lows, what happens when they
bounce? And if if if even the mega caps
just go up a little bit, then you get a
big push up in the S&P. Now, listen, if
we go back to the S&P and we break into
the neutral zone, then I've got to say,
all right, we're in the neutral zone. I
got to be more neutral on this market.
But until then, I'm going to remain
bullish. Now, looking at the 10-year
yield today, here it is right here,
guys. The 10-year yield is down uh just
over one basis point. So, it's not a
lot, but the market will take anything
it can get right now. Just to show you,
this was yesterday's high here. If we go
to our weekly chart and zoom out, look
at this. This was the high from 2007
right there that we pierced yesterday.
And by the way, so far it's rejected the
yield, meaning resistance is holding up.
And in this situation, if you're a bull
on the markets, you want yields to come
in a little bit because that will help
the stock market go up. It'll also help
gold go up. It'll help silver go up and
even Bitcoin go up as well. So keep that
on your radar. Now, another big story we
have been following for quite some time,
longer than I care to even remember, but
oil, right? I mean, oil going back to
earlier this year has been in play. Oil
yesterday was down even though yields
were up. And that was very concerning to
me because generally that tells us that
oil is not the main driver anymore. It's
what the market is seeing as the
underbelly of sticky inflation. Now
hopefully the PCE broke that a little
bit today. We'll find out later today to
see where yields end the day. But let's
look at oil here. Oil is getting a small
bounce after dropping yesterday. Notice
again you had the ascending trend line
which was great resistance. I'm still
expecting a pullback in the near term to
this trend line which we've kind of
kissed. Now if this breaks we go down
and retrace back to this trend line
which would be basically below $80 a
barrel. And think about that folks. Now
by the way notice the orange trend line
is parallel to this trend line. That
means it's more significant in technical
analysis. All right? Essentially, it
means it's grounded um and equidistant.
So, it has that more powerful flow to it
or technical levels. Now, again, would I
be buying oil here? No, I'm not. And the
reason I'm not is in the technical
analysis that I teach in the winning
trader series tells us that the more a
trend line hits, the weaker it becomes,
right? And so, the idea here is that if
you hammer on a door, the first time I
ram a door, I probably don't break it
down. Maybe not the second time, maybe
the third time. It's kind of iffy, but
if I keep ramming that door, if anyone
keeps ramming a door, eventually those
hinges that lock, they're going to break
and that door goes through, right? You
go to the other side. And so the same
thing can be said right here where we
very clearly have a first hit, bounce,
second hit, bounce, third hit. This is
now the fourth hit, which gets a little
bit iffy. It's more of a 50/50 if it's
going to hold and bounce or is it going
to break to the downside. So just keep
that in mind. important methodology. If
you're a statistical, logical thinker,
this is the way you got to analyze the
market. It's the only, honestly, it's
the only way I've ever really been able
to come out ahead is by being logical
and making decisions based on logic and
discipline, uh, and technical analysis,
which is what that is, versus emotional
trading. Oh, I like that. my heart feels
like that's a good trade or my gut is no
my gut my heart they they suck they
they're wrong most of the time frankly
so you know what did I have to do to
become a winning trader I had to re
revert back to a very robotic weird
state to be honest when it comes to
technical analysis just food for thought
right let's continue on here guys today
catching another little bit of a bounce
here uh in terms of gold what are we
watching now well we have this trend
line here which is the current low
pivot. Right? So, this one is now an
intriguing level that I'm following
pivot low from this point through these
lows and right to that low pivot. If
this breaks, that's where we likely go
to 3,900. And I still think there's a
chance on gold of getting down to 3500
if this level breaks. Now again we will
have double bottom which will be some
support. But again if this this this is
a longer trend line. Remember in
technical analysis the longer the trend
line the firmer the line. And this is
only technically this would and some of
you may be wondering this. Here's one
hit. This actually is considered to be
just one single hit. All right? It has
to go away from the line and come back
to be considered another hit. So this
would be the third hit. So it should
bounce here. But again we hammer on it
again. it becomes a 5050 for a potential
breakdown. Same thing on silver, guys.
You have this trend line. Let me flip
from the weekly back to the daily. Same
sort of trend line. The only difference
maker here is that we we kind of kissed
that line, but you could argue that
maybe we didn't quite hit it. Either
way, this is the trend line to watch on
whether or not to me silver not only
goes to 55 here, but potentially down to
50. If it can hold this, I'll give it
the benefit of the doubt. I'll give gold
the benefit of the doubt if it holds its
line and say, "Okay, we're going up."
Now, keep in mind on gold and silver, if
you ask me, am I bullish near-term, I'm
neutral to maybe slightly. I'm giving it
the benefit of the doubt. If it breaks,
I'm bearish near-term. If you ask me if
I'm bullish long-term, heck yeah. So,
again, it depends on your time horizon,
right? We're all uh traders in some
format. Some people are long-term, some
people are midterm, some people are
shorter term. I tend to be more shorter
term except for things like gold where I
do have, you know, gold investments that
I plan on holding for decades, frankly,
because unless our government starts
shaping up on its monetary or fiscal
irresponsibility and fiscal
responsibility,
gold is going to be a thing. It's going
to be just like potentially Bitcoin.
Some people disagree on Bitcoin. We'll
find out obviously over time. All right,
natural gas, guys, continuing to show
weakness down just fractionally today.
Amazing how this had this big pop and
this big retrace. If it breaks, and I'll
show you an interesting little
short-term trend line right here. This
is now short-term support. It's only
short-term support, but again, something
I'm watching right around 285. If this
breaks, we go right down to 270. So,
again, watching on a shorter term basis
to see what happens there. And then
Bitcoin here, folks. Bitcoin pushing up
today. Remember, Bitcoin had this
beautiful longerterm breakout. That was
one I called out when it was happening.
Even when it was going like this, I
said, "Guys, this is going to go. This
is going to go." And then boom. Then it
consolidated again. Another blast. Is
this another consolidation before a
blast? It certainly looks like it may be
starting to look that way. I'll keep you
guys in the loop, but right now, Bitcoin
remains the best major asset out there
in terms of charts. All right, let's go
into a couple charts of stocks here
before we end today's game plan. Um,
again, these are stocks that are moving
today. Again, there's not a whole lot
that are moving, but I do want to touch
on JBL, which reported earnings. Kagra,
which reported earnings, and then we got
to talk about Micron, which reports
earnings after the bell today. All
right, so let's take a look here. JBL
down a little bit on earnings. This
isn't a big drop. The stock yesterday
closed around 9 uh 319. It's trading at
307. So, it's down about what is that 2
to 3%. The stock again was kind of
befuddled in this lower range here. I
will just point out that you do have a
little bit of a ascending trend line.
Look at this. This is a great trend line
and this is something I'm watching on a
bigger time frame basis. So, major
pivot, major pivot, major pivot. Now,
today we're trading down on earnings. If
this line breaks, that would be a watch
out below moment where this could really
start to dump out significantly. Now,
JBL is involved in kind of software
related to semiconductors and stuff like
that. So, it's kind of in the semi
space, it's rallied quite a bit with the
semis. Um, but again, with Micron
earnings after the bell, we'll have to
watch and see what happens. Kagra
continuing to come lower here, guys. So
again, this is probably pricing pressure
in related to their earnings. And by the
way, JBL had a good earnings report, but
they were just too high on the charts.
Kagra maybe not so good here. And again,
if you think about it, the input cost,
food and energy, right? I mean, Kagra's
got to ship all its TV dinners or
whatever it is to to stores. Those costs
are going up. The cost of food is going
up. How much can you raise the price of
a TV dinner before people start just
saying, "Hey, listen. I'm just going to
cook it myself." Um, or do the best I
can. And so I think there's a lot of
inflation pressure on Kagra. Now listen,
if you go to the daily chart, I am
watching I have this bigger parallel uh
that's quite a bit lower, but I will be
watching double bottom a dollar lower
around 1260. If we get there today, I
would be interested in a day trade,
potentially a swing trade on that.
Lastly, Micron. Micron looks to be
opening slightly higher today. Today it
will report earnings after the bell.
This is probably the biggest earnings
report we've had in weeks at this point.
Um because it's a trillion dollar
company now and it's Micron. Everyone
knows Micron. Upside. If we rally on
earnings, there's a gap fill at 1150.
That would be major resistance. On the
downside, I'd be watching this trend
line. Look at this beautiful ascending
trend line just below a,000. So those
are that's resistance and the one below
is support. Those will be in the after
hours levels that I'm toning in on now.
Do I have a guide? Like what is my what
is the chart telling me about what
they're going to do? I honestly have no
good read on this. I don't I think the
earnings will be good. I think they'll
be great in fact, but it's not about
what the earnings for this last quarter
were. It's what the margins are going
forward. Like at some point other
factories are going to come online.
Whether it's 2027, 2028, there are
factories. Micron's even building a
factory, right? But we've heard SKH
Highix is building etc. So the margins
are going to go down. the market will
give it the benefit of the doubt and
probably keep it up as long as it's not
in the next 12 months. And that's what
we need to look for. The market
generally prices out stocks 6 to 12
months in what they're going to do over
the next 6 to 12 months. If they show
any sign of margin compression, this
thing could go down. And I still think
within two years, this will be a sub
$500 stock. Sounds crazy, I know. Maybe
even sub300, but I do think it'll
happen. All right, I got to get going,
guys. You guys are amazing. Thank you
guys so much for being fans of verified
investing, being fans of charts and
technical analysis and the logic based
approach. And thank you again for
sharing, liking, and again telling your
friends and family about this. We have
new shows. We have an option show coming
up if you're into options or want to
just learn options. And we have a
morning show even before the game plan
that'll be debuting in a couple weeks
where we'll bring breaking news, the top
trade setups from all the traders for
the day. Going to be awesome. Have a
great rest of your day, guys. Take care.