My Trading Game Plan | October 1, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and
narratives every time. Now I teach
investors the same techniques that made
me a multi-millionaire. This is my
trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So futures are up about a quarter% on
the S&P here. We're off of the highs
because the market keeps bobbing with
yield. So when yields uptick, which they
just did over the last 30 minutes, the
markets are pulling back. When yields
pull down, the market's catching a bid.
In addition, we saw Micron reporting
good earnings across the board, beating
revenue and earnings expectations and
guiding higher. But that stock is not
rallying mainly because everyone
expected a beat and it wasn't a big
enough beat to push the stock even
higher in the near term. We'll look at
that chart in just a minute, but
basically the main stories here, we have
yields, oil continues to be in play and
really micron earnings. So, we're going
to jump into the charts. I have a bunch
of top swing trade setups for you guys
based on end of quarter window
undressing and I'll explain what that is
as well. So S&P futures right here. You
can see again in the overnight we had a
big dump out after the market was
rallying up. This dumpout absolutely
correlates with the intraday yield
chart. So you can see overnight
basically 2 a.m. Eastern time yields
began to surge to the upside getting as
high as 5.34%.
flipping back to the S&P. That's exactly
where we took this big dump in the
overnight as well. Then yields began to
pull back as we see here and that's
where the markets rallied back. Now
yields pushing back to 5.31%
and like we can see the S&P futures are
down ticking just a little bit. Now we
did get some economic news this morning.
jobless claims, which is a weekly
number, basically telling us how many
people are filing for unemployment. That
number came in at 197,000, which is
basically in line with estimates and
where it's been now for months and
months and months. Anything around
200,000 is nothing to worry about.
That's actually very low historically
for filings for unemployment. So again,
we're seeing a minimal signal there.
That likely tells us the jobs data will
be at least solid tomorrow morning. And
don't forget, folks, non-farm payrolls
report, that is the final big number for
the week, and it will be out tomorrow at
8:30 a.m. Eastern time. All right, so
let's go to the S&P 500 daily chart. And
as we flip over to that, we can see
again I have all my levels on the
charts. We remain even after another
down day yesterday of of a quarter uh
point or quarter uh 25% or 0.25%.
Excuse me. We're still above the bullish
zone. So the neutral zone here we remain
above it. That keeps me bullish on the
S&P. Now listen, we've now had 1 2 3 4 5
six out of seven days have been down on
the S&P. So again, we've been grinding
lower, but look at I mean, in all of
this, in all of this action, how far are
we down? As of yesterday's close,
basically 2% from all-time highs. And
again, I always point this out, but I
think it's an important factor is that
you have yields at mo basically 20 plus
year highs, right? We've taken out the
2007 highs now. So, you have to go back
even further to get back to when yields
were higher than this. Um, we have oil
still north of $90 a barrel and we have
obviously midterm uncertainty coming up
yet the markets still remain near
all-time highs. Now, I did show
yesterday the equal weight. The equal
weight is getting punished which again
tells us that the big move up in the
market or at least it hanging in there
near all-time highs on the S&P is due to
a handful of mega caps. Think about
this. If you take the 5 trillion market
cap of Nvidia, you literally could take
200 plus stocks in the S&P and they
would be the same, right? Nvidia
literally equals that much of the market
cap of the S&P 500. And what that tells
us is that essentially if Nvidia is up
1% and those 200 stocks are down 1%, the
S&P, if it's just those, would be
neutral on the day. They'd wipe each
other out. Now, let me show you this
chart because I showed it to you
yesterday, but I have a major buy level
alert on this. So, this is your RSP,
which is your equal weight S&P 500 ETF.
Now, look at this amazing level. I
discovered it was it was absolutely
incredible. When I find these things,
it's like finding a diamond in the rough
type situation. You have this former
pivot right here. Look at the high,
high, high, and high. This was actually
a little inverse head and shoulders. It
broke out. It formed a little gap right
here. There's a gap that hasn't been
filled right at this 205 20470 level. In
addition, look at this. If we do my
Fibonacci retrace from this low to this
high, the 50% retrace aligns perfectly
with that level. So, one of the things I
look for in the charts is when multiple
factors align. In this case, we have a
former resistant pivot, multiple hits
before it broke out, which is a retrace.
This would be a retrace to the scene of
the crime. At that same level, we have a
gap fill and we have a Fibonacci 50%
retrace all at the same level. And you
can see this is the equal weight. So,
it's gotten hammered because remember
that's equal waiting, meaning one small
S&P company is equal to Nvidia. This is
what it shows us is that we're now down
basically 7% off the all-time highs
while the regular S&P is just down 2%.
What I'm looking at is if we get a
little bit more weakness basically to
205, this would be the level to pick up
the equal weight. Or you could take it
from another perspective and say, "Hey,
I'm going to buy the beaten down S&P
names. They should bounce back and maybe
the mega caps actually stall out."
Meaning the S&P could actually stall a
little bit. I don't think it goes down
much unless we break that neutral line,
but the equal weight should outperform
overall. Just a level to watch, folks.
Very, very interesting. Now, one other
tidbit I wanted to talk about today is
window undressing. So, for those of you
that are new, you may not know what
window undressing is or window dressing,
but basically at the end of the quarter,
fund managers, they don't want to show
bad positions that they were holding all
quarter when the quarterly statement
goes out to clients. And so, for
instance, Nike, right? Nike is basically
at multi-deade lows, at 52- week lows.
It has been a horrendous performer. And
so, what you see into quarter end is
window undressing where institutional
money managers sell if they were holding
Nike, they dump Nike into quarter end
because they don't want to show it to
the clients that they were in it.
Instead, they'd rather buy something at
the end of the quarter and be like, "Hey
guys, look at this. I was in this great
stock." you know, and the client doesn't
know that it's that they bought it at
the end of the quarter. They just see it
on the quarterly statement. And so, it's
really I mean, is it shady? Heck yeah.
But remember, I mean, these money
managers are trying to keep these
clients in their funds. So, they're
going to do whatever they have to do to
make it look like even if the
performance wasn't great, they'll be
like, "Oh, but but he was in those top
performing stocks, so we'll give him the
benefit of the doubt." Even if he wasn't
until the last day of the quarter. My
point is this. you get window undressing
on beaten down names where they sell off
even more into the end of the quarter.
Then at the beginning of the next
quarter, you usually see bounce and
snapback buying. So this is essentially
one of the things I look for in the
beginning of the year called the January
effect, but it works in the short term
to a smaller extent at the beginning of
the new quarter. So for me, what am I
looking at? I'm looking to potentially,
you know, for a Nike bounce, which is at
major multiffactor support. In addition,
Nike has earnings after the bell today.
So, this will be very interesting for
Nike. Nike is actually down a little bit
pre-market, but a name like this, and
listen, I'm not going to pretend to know
what Nike's earnings are going to be.
They're probably going to be pretty bad.
So, maybe it does go down on earnings.
We'll have to see. Expectations are rock
bottom, but the point is is that you had
window undressing in names like this and
other names that probably see a snapback
at the beginning of this quarter. Uh,
one of the stocks here, which is
remarkable, look at FICO, which got
crushed all quarter, basically all year
long since 2025, got crushed two days
ago, hit a parallel trend line. I bought
this in smart money stocks and ETFs. We
actually just sold it pre-market. Look
at the bounce in this thing now that the
new quarter is coming in. Oversold
stock. The stock now is rallying from
yesterday's close at 592. It's almost at
640. So, we're talking about basically
almost a 10% bounce on FICO. What a
bounce in the pre-market. Now, listen, I
haven't really talked yet about Micron.
We've got to look at Micron, even though
the move is not massive. Let's take a
look at that right now. Here's Micron on
earnings. Initially, it flushed, then it
popped, then it flushed, then it popped,
then it flushed, and and you can see
essentially it didn't do a whole lot
once it settled down. It is slightly
lower, but we're talking about basically
1% lower or less. And if we go to the
daily chart, I was eyeing a flush to buy
here on this longer term daily trend
line or a short at gap fill. You're not
I'm not going to get either opportunity
today. It's literally not moving enough
to even think about as a day trade. I
mean, maybe if it drops to 10:15, this
gap fill down here, maybe there'll be a
day trade opportunity to go long on
Micron. But aside from that, I'm going
to sit out of it and just wait patiently
while we keep an eye on other names.
Now, one of the top stories that I
thought was interesting is is that the
CEO of Micron said that he wasn't sure
when the essentially new software or I
should say new chips, new memory chips
from factories will come online. And I
think that was a little concerning. So,
they beat on earnings, they beat on
revenue, they raised guidance. But when
you have the CEO saying he's not sure
about when a lot of new chips are going
to flood the market and drive margins
down, that kind of makes people a little
bit nervous. And I think that's
partially what's going on here. Another
story that hit the wires today was from
Alphabet/Google.
Google here trading up on the morning
session. You can see it's been hugging
this long-term technical support, but
basically they announced a new model
called Argon. And Argon is able to
maximize usage of chips so that you need
less memory. In fact, it freed up a lot
of terabytes of memory. And this is also
a risk that I've been warning about for
months that eventually technology will
figure out a way to use less resources
to get a bigger bang for the buck. And
that will also lower longerterm demand
for memory, data storage, etc., and even
potentially Nvidia chips. Now right now
the the semiconductor stocks they dipped
a little on this news this morning and
then they bounced right back to the
green side. So again it doesn't seem to
be a big impact because people are
skeptical but it is a story that I think
will come out more and more. Remember in
2025 we saw we heard Deepseek had a
model from China that already did this
and all these stocks sold off 30 to 50%.
Now, I'm not saying that's going to
happen now, but I'm my point is is that
the technology will advance where we
need less storage and less memory and
new factories coming online. I predict
within a year, year and a half, we will
see a glut of memory chips on the market
to the point where margins collapse down
to 10 to 20% from the 80% that they're
with. With that, Micron probably
eventually within a year and a half is
down to $300 a share. I know that sounds
scary, but um it likely will happen. All
right, couple other stocks there. AGNC,
keep an eye on this one. Uh this is a
stock I found here. Great horizontal
trend line, ascending, beautiful trend
line merging at 8.95. It's only about 13
cents away from that and RSI is below
20. When this combination occurs,
probabilities for a bounce reach about
80%
per the data. So again, I don't know if
it'll hit the level today, but this
would be a very interesting opportunity
for us as swing traders on AGNC
Investment Corporation. All right,
moving on, guys. Let's move over to
commodities. Gold today. Small bounce.
This is my new favorite trend line for
watching to see if we get a bigger
breakdown on gold. Gold again has come
well off of its highs. It's approaching
good support here and this ascending
trend line. If we break this 4,100
level, I think not only do we test the
3,900 area, but the it opens the door to
3500 on gold, which I talked about
earlier this year when we were coming
down and people said, "Ah, he's crazy.
He's crazy." It may not happen, but as a
trader, you always have to know your
worst case scenarios and your best case
scenarios. Because if you just shut out
one side to favor the side that you're
long, I've learned this the hard way
that I generally will lose money in
those scenarios because I don't take
into account the risks. So again, I want
to know and and I still have a
prediction based on my calculator at
verifiedinvesting.com, which by the way
is free. If you have our app, you can
use the calculator for gold and it
projects out the the target on gold and
when it's going to happen. It's 13,000
or so on my model, but it doesn't mean
that in the near term I can ignore
technical analysis. If it says it's
going to go down a little bit more, it's
going to go and in all fairness, it
gives us a buying opportunity, right?
So, I think that's really, really key.
And you see the QR code if you want to
check it out there. Now, before we get
into more charts, I'm going to go into
silver, into natural gas, we'll look at
oil, we'll look at yields again, we'll
look at Bitcoin. I did just want to take
a second to mention that the sponsor of
this show is Rumble and the Rumble
wallet. Now, what's so cool about that
is you can buy and sell crypto in that
wallet. You can buy and sell gold via
Tether in there. But what they've really
started to introduce, which I think is
very unique, is that basically they want
you to be able to tip creators. And so
the idea is is that the Rumble wallet,
you can have crypto in there, but it
enables you to tip creators that you
think have put up great content. And so
again, um I haven't done that yet on the
mod on the on the thing, but I've done
my crypto trading right here on the app
on Rumble Wallet. But they are offering
a code verified with the number 10,
verified 10 for $10 in stable coins,
which you then can use to tip any
creator that you think deserves it. And
I like that. It it encourages quality
content, right? Instead of just pumping
out nonsense, creators can actually
create real good stuff and they can get
rewarded by those that like it. So, it's
a cool concept, but check it out and get
your $10 in stable coins with that code
verified 10. All right, back to the
chart we go here. If we take a look at
silver, silver has a very similar trend
line right here. And that trend line
here, if it breaks, it opens the door to
$50 an ounce. And I'm actually getting
more and more inclined to think that $50
an ounce is still in the cards, maybe
even a pierce of 50. And I say that
specifically because the higher rates go
and the longer oil stays up, the more
it's going to it's going to weaken the
underlying economy. And you already see
what's going on with the equal weight
S&P stocks. They're getting crushed. I
mean, look at look at most of them are
trading below their 50 moving averages.
And so, how much longer can the economy
withstand rates up here with the Fed
likely to raise again in October and
with oil where it is? That's the tricky
thing. And if the economy starts to
slow, the industrial demand for silver
may slow as well, driving it to 50. So,
I've got my buys loaded just at that 50
or below level. If we get down there,
I'm a buyer. I'm not buying here. I
don't trust it enough. I don't have a
good enough outlook on the economy to
trust buying at these levels. I could be
wrong and that's the that's the nature
of investing. Sometimes you're wrong,
but overall that's my take. All right,
couple other charts. Natural gas still
holding technical short-term support.
Great pullback here on it over the last
week or so. But again, I am long that
gas again after being long here, dumping
on the pop. I'm reong in this lower
vicinity. I'm out of the money slightly
from my buy around 290 average price,
but nonetheless, I still like it with
seasonality coming into play and how
much of a deficit Europe has for natural
gas. Lastly, Bitcoin, guys. Bitcoin
hasn't done much now for the last week
or two right here. Almost no price
movement. The question I now have is, is
this a bull flag? Arguably, yes. or is
this a micro bare flag? Hm, that one
gets into the question. And honestly,
I'm not going to pretend to know the the
answer to that. The only thing I can say
is I showed you the Bitcoin dominance
chart yesterday. Bitcoin BTC.D
if you want to take a look at it on your
platform or on Trading View here. But
this one is showing and you can see as
all coins start to pull back and Bitcoin
stays flat, Bitcoin dominance starts to
move up. Getting a little bit of a green
candle. you had your bigger breakout and
this could tell us that Bitcoin is going
to stall or go slightly lower, but
altcoins could have a major pullback. I
mean, you've seen Zcash go up 250%.
A 30% draw down would not be outlandish,
but that would help Bitcoin dominance.
So, something to take a look at right
there in the charts and I'll keep you on
point. All right, guys. I've got my
trading room waiting for me. We're going
to get into the day trading day today in
the live day trading room. Check out
verified investing subscriptions. The
smart money stocks and ETFs. You see my
live portfolio. My FICO we just closed
out. You'll see that in closed
positions. You'll see all of my open
positions. I always say to people, I
show full transparency. The good, the
bad, and the ugly. So, what am I really
getting smoked on? What have we done for
the year? How's the portfolio? I started
with a million dollars at the beginning
of the year. That portfolio is for smart
money stocks. We have another one for
Smart Money crypto. We're up, I think,
270,000
this year on the million-dollar
portfolio and the crypto one swing
trading crypto. Amazing year, by the
way. That's not with using ridiculous
leverage. In fact, no leverage at all,
staying within the million dollars. Um,
so it just shows you how it it works.
And then smart money, commodities, and
miners. I think we're up over 250,000 in
that portfolio. Same thing. So, full
transparency here at Verified Investing.
I think that's an important thing for us
all. It's why our motto is all charts
and data and no BS. We try to follow it
all the way through from our analysis to
the portfolios. Go check us out, guys.
I'll talk to you soon. Take care.