Trading The Close | October 1, 2026

AI Summary

Transcript

Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosk. Now guys,
today in the market, we actually had a
pretty decent rally from the lows. The
spiders in the cues mainly were somewhat
flat, but it the rally was led by tech
guys. SMH up over 1%. That was really
having tailwinds from earlier this week
when we had economic data that showed
that the uh PCE, which is the inflation
gauge for the Fed, that is coming in a
little bit cooler. Plus, we've got hot
jobs reports, which is giving room for
the Fed to go ahead and hike rates. And
speaking of which, today the Fed rate
tool actually increased probabilities of
keeping rates the same at the upcoming
meeting by 76% odds that we're going to
keep rates the same, but a heavy rate
still leaning towards a rate hike come
December. So that also allowed the
markets to breathe a sigh of relief and
push up in the market. So, all this
combination going on, plus we got the
sleeper hold that's on the 10-year yield
telling you and everybody that the move
up is at least for the near-term paused
and likely to come back down on the
chart. So, let's jump into the S&P 500
where we see the daily chart here on the
SPY uh ETF. Now, we see if you just
isolate this one daily candle, guys.
Doesn't that look like a bottoming tail
on the chart? Now, I know the rules of
bottoming tales. It needs to occur at
the bottom of the chart. We've got
plenty of candles over here, but what a
nice intraday recovery from the lows.
And we see what happened last time we
put in a candle like that, man. We
gapped up and rallied up higher. So,
this was a really robust u not very big
push higher in the markets, but as far
as the sentiment, this was a good finish
on the day recovering back where we are.
That makes me look near-term tomorrow at
76679
as the resistance. Now, we have non-farm
payrolls coming out tomorrow morning.
Now guys, remember we did uh blow past
those last time. Uh we had 162,000 jobs
created. We're forecasting 90,000 jobs.
So that's going to be the big print
tomorrow morning. Plus, we've got more
consumer data uh sentiment that will be
coming out next week. We still have some
more inflation data with the additional
services of PMI. So, let's jump back
into the charts. As we said, spiders
right now somewhat looking like a
near-term bottom having hit to this
support level. Now guys, remember we
talked about this for quite a while.
This is why it's important to keep key
technical levels and trend lines drawn
on your chart. As you see, we broke
through this area before, but that still
was support. Notice we hit it before as
well. Got a bounce. How many times we've
hit this and ended up bouncing. That is
a key level certainly to the downside.
That $76040
into the NASDAQ with the IXIC. And we
see here on the NASDAQ, really a flat
day, but somewhat like the spiders,
pretty decent wick on the bottom. Now,
I've been saying this for the past
couple days. This nice breakout from
this declining trend line at the
all-time highs is good for the NASDAQ
and it's maintaining the breakout, but
bulls want to see price get away from
this declining trend line and do it
ASAP. You can see today it didn't really
push further than yesterday, but we're
not down near the lows. So, that's the
positive takeaway for the NASDAQ.
near-term resistance will be this
all-time high pivot just above 27,200
points. But then we look overhead. If
this bullish consolidation does break to
that pivot that I described just a
second ago, here's where the near
overhead resistance will be just above
28,000 points. Somewhat makes sense.
That's a whole round number on the
chart. And then plus, if I zoom back,
you can see I've got long-term trend
lines that both converge overhead price
right there in that $28,000 range or
28,000 point range coming back from the
pivot highs from December of 2024 and
then the pivot high back in November of
2021. All strung through the recent
pivot highs that we've had in this year
in June. Next up into the semis. Now
guys, hey, I've I've given you a heads
up about this. We walked through the
semis uh from being somewhat bearish,
getting rejected, getting uh uh pushed
down further on the charts, matter of
fact, getting back into old parallel
channels, and then we walked you through
step by step. Everybody can do this,
too. Just draw some simple lines on your
chart. And you can see how the SMH is
progressing to break out. And guys, it's
continuing to do so. Now, today getting
above the 618 fib retrace from the
all-time high down to the most recent
low that occurred in July. as in I can
show you and just draw it here on the
chart. It only takes me literally a
couple seconds and you can see clearly
we consolidated right here for several
trading days today putting in a daily
close above that realm of consolidation.
That's a very positive move. And what's
that on the back of guys? That's on the
back of MU earnings not collapsing in
the market. It pushed up. They did so
slightly which allowed the rest of the
other SIM and AI tech plays to just push
up higher on the charts. breathe a sigh
of relief that MU didn't get knocked on
its earnings report. So, nice push up on
the SMH. We'll see if we can push up
tomorrow. And if we do and close above
today's candle, this level of resistance
will flip from resistance into support
and then target this next upward uh
level at $635.84.
Next up, guys, into what I consider the
biggest story of the day, guys, the
10-year yield. For a moment earlier
today, look at this. We made new highs,
new nearterm highs, pushing up to a
point that we haven't seen on the
10-year yield since 2002. We got up to
5.342%
today, but then finally developed a red
candle after a series of a number of
green candles. So, we have just a
handful now of red candles ever since
back here on September 3rd. So, finally,
a little bit of reprieve off the top of
the 10-year yield. Now, I did highlight,
guys, we have a sleeper hold pattern in
play. A sleeper hold is something that
I've identified. It's one of my unique
trade setups and signals that uses three
factors, stacking them all in your favor
for a move in the opposite direction.
It's a trend changing pattern
recognition uh uh educational program
right there. You see it on the QR code.
Flash that for more information. Go
ahead, take a picture of it. Guys, this
is one of the most amazing signals as
guys, it occurred on the SMH as well. If
I flip to the weekly time frame, it
occurred right here, guys. So, this this
signal can can pull down the most
powerful uh sector in the markets, and
it's doing so before our eyes on the
10-year yield. Now, it would become even
more uh dependable or even stronger if
we have a narrow body bar close on the
weekly time frame because then we would
have a sleeper hold pattern on the
weekly and the daily time frame on the
10-year yield. That all increases
probabilities of what I've said when
we've run up into this range of 5.289%.
We've done so so quickly. We need a
period of some sort of pullback or
consolidation. That pullback is giving
the markets an opportunity to push up
higher in the charts. I'm expecting
consolidation to pull back as low as
5.021. May not get down that low, but
I'm anticipating consolidation right
here in that range. Next up into gold.
Now, you see gold really didn't do too
much today. Uh the good thing is it's
off of its near-term lows. That's that's
somewhat near-term positive. Let's see
if this consolidation continues uh to
form over the next several days and
we'll re-evaluate gold uh for potential
upside. Uh next up into silver. Now
silver, same sort of story as um gold.
It's it's consolidating sideways, but
this not as as much of a strong
consolidation form. You notice we went
down and hit a low and we've really just
gone sideways. We haven't popped up and
started chopping sideways. So, this is
more of a true bare flag one that does
uh favor some more downside, which all
we have to do is look right here on the
charts with a head and shoulders pattern
that does target a move down here to the
$53 range on silver. I'm anticipating
more downside on this chart in the near
to medium term. Next up into Bitcoin,
not too much new to report today. The
main thing to take away though, we are
still in bullish consolidation despite
this big red candle down and the
sideways consolidation. We made a move
up to the next level of resistance. We
clear clear clearly see how this
horizontal trend line was jamming up
price on the chart of Bitcoin. We've
gotten above and now have remained
above. So still good for Bitcoin. Next
resistance I see on the chart is the
neckline from the previous head and
shoulders pattern just above $89,000.
And that head and shoulders pattern is
easy to spot right here on the weekly
time frame. So, if price when and if
price gets above that level, guys, I'll
start flipping that switch more on
bullish mode for crypto as well as
Bitcoin, but it hasn't happened yet. So,
we'll see if Bitcoin can get over that
key threshold. Uh, next up into US oil
did push up a little bit today and we
still saw the saw the markets push up as
well. Uh, the main thing is US oil
didn't push up a lot. Still within the
last three ranges or three days of
trading range. Um, so not too much new
to report. mainly a lot of sideways
consolidation here on the chart. Now, uh
oil got very close to support and we
very well could continue moving higher,
kissing this level, which is the bottom
of the parallel channel. Notice how that
also corresponded with this previous
pivot high. So, I'm still anticipating
um US oil potentially to come down, hit
that parallel. We're just separating
ourselves today. One candle up. We'll
see if we'll return right back down
tomorrow. Uh next up into Nat Gas F for
f little tongue twi tied at the end of
the day guys. You see Nat Gas further
extending its decline. There we go from
this uh drop that we've seen from the
most recent top. Now guys, this is just
one candle down. This happened already
before right here on September 9th. You
see when we did finally break above this
horizontal trend line that was the cap
on price. We retested it, came back
down, put one candle under. The same
thing is occurring here. Now, the good
news though, if this selling continues,
because I'm still bullish on NAC gas
despite the supply inventory and our
excess of NAK gas. Um, but you see here
this inclining trend line will be a
level of support right here at $2.98.
So, even if we have continued selling,
we could get a decent bounce right back
up on the charts there on NAC gas. And
guys, into the story of the day. All
right, MU. This is a big company. It
it's really had a whole bunch of
excitement this year rallying up the way
it has with the AI data center buildout.
And guys, if you haven't recognized,
man, this has been a key driver in the
increase of cost for all the computers.
Beware if you're going to be shopping
for a new computer over the holiday
season. Memory prices have literally
gone out of control. But anyway, back
into MU. The key thing for MU and a lot
of investors including myself were
watching was this horizontal trend line
separating price from the peak highs
that we had back in June. And you can
see price was capped for several
attempts to go higher right here at this
level at $1,35.50.
Well, today we did trade underneath
that. And where did we finish? Up near
the top range of this consolidation. So
that leaves it at least near-term
positive, which is also why the semis
pushed up higher, which is why a lot of
other uh um AI and tech plays continued
to push up because MU did not break
down. Now, where can it go next? We've
clearly got a gap fill right here. But
guys, if I take away this inclining
trend line, let me draw a parallel
channel. I think this illustrates where
we could go, especially when charts are
making new highs on on their uh on the
year or just on any near-term making new
highs. where can we go? Because we're
not just going to stop at all-time highs
on every single chart, but we cleanly
see here if we were to continue to march
up, that 50% area, the parallel will
likely be the next key resistance beyond
what I already identified, the gap fill
and the all-time high. Now, when it gets
there is another question, but as you
can see here, that line extends and gets
higher and higher and higher for MU. So,
positive news though, takeaway today. We
are in the green still in this
consolidation eyeing the next potential
gap fill with a lot of overhead room to
run if this MU play catches fire again.
Next up guys, big breakout and into some
head and shoulders patterns. I love
going through education with you guys.
Head and shoulders patterns to me are
some of the most reliable patterns on
the charts. Main reason I like them too
is because they come with a targeted
measured move. man, when you have an
idea of where to get into and you've got
an idea of where to get out, how much
easier can it be for trading. Now, the
other thing, identifying key factors of
how price breaks out, which we're going
to walk through step by step right here
on this chart. So, first off, ACN, look
at this big beat on earnings. They had a
nice uh double beat EPS as well as
revenue, but the guidance was nice and
pushed ACN over this key threshold
highlighted by this dotted line across
the the screen, which is the neckline of
the inverse uh head and shoulders
pattern, $197.98.
Great break and move higher. Now, the
key for holding all of this is really to
have another close above today's key
breakout candle. That may be a big test
considering we're selling off near the
lows. Now, one other way to play this.
Now, that would be the most secure. All
right, you want to see a price close
above and then price clo comes back down
by the level of support. I've gone
through this on other charts showing we
need to have a continued push. That way,
any drawbacks on the chart can hit this
support and then potentially bounce up.
Now, another way to look at this, if you
want to be aggressive, not wait for that
to occur, I just drew the fib
retracement sequence and you can see
right here at 20119
will be the first level of support. We
very well may not get back down here to
the neckline on ACN. But it does have
while price is above this neckline, the
dotted line, it does have the potential
for price to go to 27737.
This just isn't the most ideal setup. I
would rather see price break in this
range, put in another day up, then come
back, give us our breakout, retrace
bounce play, the the play that we talk
about in here so very often. And they
can be done on inverse head and
shoulders patterns. You know what? They
can be done on too regular head and
shoulders patterns, guys. Now, look over
here on TKO. This is the uh ticker that
covers WWE. I know we all probably seen
that at one point or another, but guys,
here at the top of the chart, we have a
massive head and shoulders pattern that
has most recently triggered. Last week,
we had a weekly candle close. looking
like this week is going to confirm that
move down on the charts with a targeted
measured move down here at $137.
Now, we could see bounces along the way.
I see this shelf right here at $166.
That could give a retest of that
neckline. That would be the appropriate
place to get in. Wait for price to get
back up and then fade that play. And if
price gets above the neckline, simply
stop out. That way you manage risk very,
very nicely. Oh, one other chart I
wanted to show with a inverse head and
shoulders pattern, guys. Look at
SanDisk. This is obviously one of the
cousins to MU. Now, the key thing here
on SanDisk, too. We've been meandering
right here on the neckline, much like MU
consolidating, putting in that bullish
consolidation. Investors weren't sure
which way MU was going to send its stock
and then likely drag down or push up
this cousin in SanDisk. And right now,
price is maintaining above this inverse
head and shoulders pattern. patter. Now
guys, a quick and easy way to draw a
measured move in case you don't know,
after you draw the head and shoulders
pattern, take your uh trend line tool
down to the bottom of the head and take
a straight line up to the neckline and
then draw and drag that trend line over
to the point in which price broke on the
neckline right there. And then boom,
that gives us our targeted measured move
above $2600,
which somewhat makes sense. We've got an
inclining parallel channel that goes
along with that highlighting that this
area will be resistant should price
continue to barrel up towards those
levels. Next up, we got a breakout watch
here on SNPS. Huge move today after they
announced a deal with Open AI. Now,
guys, here's the here's the thing here
where this sort of breakout, yes, is
exciting. We have a push up of 12.78%
right into a declining trend line taken
back from July of 2025. Clearly, we put
on the brakes right there. We pierced
it, but then ended up closing right
underneath. The one thing to watch and
monitor with this, look at the daily RSI
at the bottom of the screen. All right,
we have a 74.41
RSI. Anything over 70 is considered
overbought in the near term. So for
price action to continue to break out in
an overbought scenario is very difficult
for it to maintain the breakout because
what we want to see is a push higher
tomorrow and then another push higher.
So that would put it well into
overbought territory. But if that can
occur, that pulls open the opportunity
for price to pull back technically since
it's extended. And where will it pull
back to the place on the trend line from
which it broke out from? So keep this on
your radar with SNPS. If I flip to the
weekly time frame, you see we've got
some room to run. So, in the near term,
this could be setting up for a near-term
uh two-day push higher. Just be keeping
an eye on that RSI and manage where you
get in. You don't want to get in when
RSI is above 70 for a potential long
play. All right, next up and lastly into
WFC. Now, the U financials were under
stress today, guys. and they've been
under stress as you can see here for the
last about week to two weeks of trading
action with the rates continuing to push
higher up on the charts. Now, what WFC
did today, excuse me, is they pierced a
long-term inclining trend line. Now,
check out the RSI on this chart. It's
down at 32.58. So, we're getting on the
warning track just for a pure technical
bounce on the charts. A bounce of a
technical nature with optimistic point
of view could take us all the way up
here to 8354. the bottom range of this
previous consolidation. So, it's a great
start for now. But guys, this somewhat
made sense because the IWM is this does
have a lot of bank stocks. It also was
oversold right near the bottom of its
parallel channel. So, it's it makes
sense when you see some of these
financials coming into these key
long-term inclining support trend lines
andor parallels like it displayed on the
IWM plus the oversold nature, we likely
are due for a near-term technical
bounce. The one thing to keep in mind
here with a WFC, this trend line has
been hit now once, twice, third, fourth,
now five times, guys. The more and more
you hit these lines, the weaker they
become. Yes, we were due for a technical
bounce, but if we continue to hit this
with a shorter time frame, the
probabilities increase for a break to go
lower. So, just be very, very mindful.
This could be a near-term bounce play.
But I if it continues back down, you
know, just be mindful of taking your
profits very quickly as the next hit, I
anticipate uh likely will start breaking
that inclining trend line. All right,
guys. Uh as I said at the beginning of
the show, we have the non-farm payrolls
report tomorrow. So, don't forget that
at 8:30 in the morning if the markets
are starting to have some volatility.
Thank you guys so much for watching
today. Don't forget to like and
subscribe. Hopefully you guys are able
to take away some good education with
the head and shoulders, these inclining
and declining trend lines, how they
break, and also can profit from some of
these potential trades in the near
future, too. Guys, that wraps us up for
trading the close through this week.
We'll be back here on Monday next week.
Have a fantastic weekend, and we'll see
you on the charts, folks.