Nike Flushes To A Pivot Low As Yields Bounce Back

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This week's trades, market movers, and
technical levels that count, wrapped up
with [music] clarity and precision. This
is a weekly wrap-up with Verified
Investing.
>> Hey everybody, welcome to the weekly
wrap-up. My name is Gareth Soloway,
chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Now, what a day it's been. the market
surging out of the gate on a weaker
thanex expected jobs report. Let's take
a look at those numbers right now and go
through them. So off the off the cuff
right here, non-farm payrolls coming in
at 29,000
versus the 89,000 forecast. Unemployment
rate upticked to 4.2% 2% and hourly
earnings were lighter than expected just
basically positive at.1%
versus the forecast of.3%.
So essentially why is the market
rallying on weaker economic data? So
number one it's not negative jobs
growth. If we had a loss of jobs, I
don't think the market would be
rallying. But a lighter than expected
kind of like just right number, just a
little bit of a gain, but not too hot,
takes the pressure off the Federal
Reserve from hiking rates potentially in
October and in December. And that's what
the market wants. Remember, what's the
biggest headache to the markets? It's
the amount that it costs to finance
debt. Just like for the United States,
when you pay 40 on interest on $40
trillion, it's massive. And so lower
rates keep the economy going. We'll keep
an eye on that. All right. So that's
number one. The markets again saw yields
initially flushing, but get this guys,
yields pushed back up. They pushed back
up and are basically flat to green on
the day. And what does this tell us? It
tells us there's an underlying issue in
the bond market that has the potential
to do serious damage to the stock
market. Now, the stock market is still
up right now, but if these yields don't
start coming in, there is the potential
for a financial crisis in the markets.
All right, let's get into the charts
here and take a look. This is the S&P
into the days end. So, again, we'll
continue to monitor this and see where
it all goes. But the S&P right now is
fractionally up a little bit. And again,
it's not a bad move. It's about a 3/4 of
1% move on the S&P 500. We are off of
the highs because yields have pushed
back off of the lows. Taking a look at
the 10-year yield, look at this, guys.
The 10-year yield is back to 5.281%.
In fact, you could argue once again the
S&P is finding amazing resilience. Now,
we might say, "Well, why is it
resilient?" Well, basically, early in
the day off that jobs report, the
markets were ripping up. The 10-year
yield was collapsing. We hit a low of
5.15%
and then yields turned around, went
right back up, and the S&P has held a
decent amount of its gains. So, that, my
friends, is a positive. Now, part of
that is oil coming in. We saw news that
France may release 50 million barrels
from their strategic reserve to help get
oil prices down. And I think there's a
general vibe in the markets that with
one month till the midterms, it's very
likely we'll see oil kind of stay here
or come lower. So that's taking a little
bit of of pressure off the gas pedal, if
you will. All right. Now, going back to
the chart, the 10-year yield remains
right into major pivotal resistance
here. And if we zoom out on the weekly
chart, it takes us back to that major
high from 2007. And remember, 2007 was
the peak before the financial crisis. So
again, you could argue, did rates being
up where they were in 2007
potentially add to the the the odds that
the financial crisis was going to
happen? Now again, there was ridiculous
lending practices in the mortgage
industry, but again, it was all done by
essentially
giving loans to people that probably
shouldn't have had them. And then you
had yields pushing up, interest rates
pushing up, and eventually it broke the
system, right? People just could not
afford to pay their mortgages with the
interest rate where it is now. The
difference is at this stage the amount
of debt the US has is monstrously higher
than where it was in 2007. So you could
argue rates at 5.3% 5.28% where we are
right now is much worse. The question is
does it break the camel's back? Is it
the straw that breaks the camel's back
as they say? All right. So yields again
go into next week right at this massive
resistance level. a break above this,
the markets likely do sell. The S&P 500
up about 3/4 of a percent into Friday's
close. But again, I look at this and I
say, "Wow, for so number one, resilience
is the key term again this week and
we're still above the bullish line,
right?" So, as long as we stay above the
neutral zone, it keeps us in the bullish
zone for the markets. In other words, I
remain bullish on the markets at this
point. All right. So, that's right there
where we are. If we look at the NASDAQ
100 today, the NASDAQ 100 continues to
hold up relatively well, up 1%. What's
amazing about this is the NASDAQ 100 for
the first time since June 3rd of 2026
made a new all-time high. All right. So
again, the NASDAQ 100, which is heavy
weighted to names like Nvidia. And
Nvidia again doing very, very well
today, actually touched its double top
right up here. Look at that, folks. It's
all-time high. Nvidia made a new
all-time high early in the day, but has
come in off of those highs. Still up
1.3%. And if I zoom out, look at this
zone. Now, you might say, do I short
this double top? The answer to by me is
no. Why not? Because look, there's a
history of Nvidia going up to this trend
line. That is where I would take the
short on Nvidia up here, which on the
charts would be around 255 or higher
depending on at what price it gets
there. Now, is there any guarantee that
Nvidia gets to that level? The answer is
no, there isn't. But if it gets there, I
already have my game plan of what I'm
going to do. And that's really the key
to trading, right? Is, you know, people
get in trouble when they get emotional
and people get emotional when they don't
have a game plan, when they when they
something happens where they don't
expect it to happen. And that's really
where things unravel and they react
emotionally and thus getting out when
they should stay in or getting in when
they should be basically sitting on the
sidelines or shorting. Okay, so let's
continue on here today. So, the S&P
remains strong, the NASDAQ making a new
all-time high, the NASDAQ 100. Uh, the
10-year yield right at that 2007 pivot
high. And oil today is down, although
well off of its lows. Now, what's
interesting about oil? So, number one,
look at the trend line, the orange trend
line, the ascending trend line here, and
then the descending trend line here,
right? So, basically, this was
resistance and if we break down, this
becomes support. Now, intra period. So,
we're kind of in between these lines,
right? So, what are we watching? Well,
simply take a look here. If you drag
this trend line right across, and I'm
going to flip this into a different
color so that we can kind of see its
difference maker. You can see right here
there's pivot low, pivot low, and right
across. So, basically, you're at a
support on oil. If you break this
support, which is at $89 per barrel,
then you would see oil break down very
quickly to the white trend line, which
could be around $78, $79 a barrel. I
actually think that's going to end up
happening in the next month going into
the midterms. I think there's going to
be a big push to get oil down.
Historically, believe it or not, even
regardless of the war with Iran between
the US and Iran, historically going into
midterms, oil almost always falls. You
wonder why? Well, because you don't get
a lot of votes when oil is high and gas
is high. So, you got to get that down.
Doesn't matter who's in power, they do
the best to get that down into those
elections. All right, couple other
charts here to go over. Nike is the big
mover of the day, but look at the move
today off of the lows. Nike tagged a
major weekly low. I had two major levels
I was watching right here. We'll just
focus on this one. I want to zoom into
this here. Bear with me as I do. Look at
all this sideways chop right in here.
That's where we basically kissed right
into this support area around 3250 or
so. And what you've seen here is Nike
has rallied significantly off its lows,
only down 3.67%.
And look at that beautiful green candle.
Now, you might say, "Wait a minute. You
know, Nike earnings were atrocious. How
is Nike rallying so much off of its
lows?" Number one, it was already
trading at multi-deade or basically
decade lows. Number two, it was priced
already to have a horrendous report,
which they gave. And number three, you
now have kind of the baby out with the
bathwater type scenario. So now it's as
bad as it could get. People are now
saying, wait a minute, it's down here.
How much? It can't get any worse. So
maybe it's a buy time or at least short
covering is coming in. Now, one of the
things you look for is a horrendous
report like they g they gave. You look
for massive volume, which is a flush
out. Today we've done over 120 million
shares on Nike. I think today we're
going to look back and say that was the
low on Nike. I think this thing, whether
or not it goes up fast, I don't know.
I'm not going to pretend to know, but
the price action today says a major
pivot low is now in the stock. Just some
my two cents there. We'll see where it
goes. All right, so that's where we are
on that front. Nike again, what a move
here. Trading again down 3.6% off of the
lows. At one point today, Nike was down
from yesterday's close, it was down 9%
and if you go to the pre-market lows, it
was down over 10%. So, remarkable
recovery on Nike. Be interesting to see
where it closes today in just a few
minutes. All right. All right. So Nike
really one of the big players out there.
If we look at some of the other stocks
making moves, their names like Microsoft
and if we take a look at Microsoft here,
Microsoft is basically slightly
positive. Meta today basically the same
thing. So you could see that Nvidia is
rallying but many of the other players
are not rallying today. Right? So again
just interesting to take note of that.
All right. Now, we're going to move into
commodities. Now, by the way, next week
we will have more economic news
earnings-wise. This week, we had Micron.
Micron again almost a non-event um in
Nike. Pretty much a potential low on
that, but doesn't affect the stock
market. And then we turn our attention
to what's going on with yields and oil.
And really, that's the name of the game.
And that impacts gold and silver
tremendously. Um Bitcoin to some extent
as well. So, let's jump over to the gold
chart. Now, early in the day when the
jobs report came out and it was weaker
than expected, we saw gold surge up, but
then yields came back and that's not
good for gold. So, gold has come in and
I'm a little concerned about gold here
because it continues to hammer on this
longterm trend line. Now, this long-term
trend line, this is really important
here, guys, because if this trend line
breaks, not only do we likely go down to
the recent low at around 3945,
but you open the door to a bigger
breakdown to 3500.
All right. And again, I just want to
point this out. If you drag this across,
notice the previous low here was also
your low from this first initial surge
and the pullback. So, it made sense that
we would get a rally on gold off of
this. But if this one breaks here, you
easily go test 39.45. If that breaks,
there's really look, there's no major
support in here until we get down to
about 3500.
So, there's an issue there. Um, listen,
as of now, gold is holding. Silver, same
thing. We'll look at the silver chart in
a second, but overall, you have to be on
high alert with the metals based on the
price action, and I talked about this in
the game plan this morning. There's a
potential for a bare flag to be forming
with these sideways choppy candles after
the drop from earlier this week, and
that could set a recipe for that next
leg down. Now, before we get into silver
and natural gas, and by the way, great
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back to the charts here. Let's take a
look at silver. Silver, same thing. Down
slightly on the day ascending trend
line. If this breaks, we go down to 55.
If that breaks, we're headed down to the
$50 or sub $50 level on silver. Natural
gas flushed early. Look at the surge
back today. I still remain bullish on
NAC gas. And it hasn't been an easy
trade. I mean, I'm I'm slightly green on
the trade now, but it's kind of been
this kind of whipsaw action. We're
really watching this upper level here.
This 330. If we can get through 330,
that's your bigger breakout for a
monster move to the upside. And Bitcoin
today, early in the day, it was surging
up and it could not hold the gains, much
like gold and silver. So listen, when
all is said and done, markets are on a
string that is being controlled like a
puppet master by the 10-year yield. All
right. Now, having said that, I'll
reiterate this and this is in incredibly
important. Even with the 10-year yield
trading near 5.3%, basically at 19-year
plus highs, the S&P today is up and net
net we are only about 1% off all-time
highs. We're above my neutral line,
which means I'm we're in the bullish
zone. I remain bullish into next week
and I think again where I'm looking at
I'm looking at more equal weight. the
tech stocks, the ones that are at
all-time highs, they may take a
breather, but some of these beaten down
plays, all a Nike or some of like
something like Clorox, those have
significant upside per the charts. All
right, guys, here is your weekly
wrap-up. Go have a wonderful weekend. I
will talk to you soon. Take care.